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You can deduce the number of required infections by taking an IFR and the given total deaths of 613000.

IFR: 0.15 = 613000 * 1 / 0.0015 = 408 million infections (124% population)

IFR: 0.3 = 613000 * 1 / 0.003 = 204 million infections (62% population)

IFR: 0.6 = 613000 * 1 / 0.006 = 102 million infections (31% population)

So in case of the lower IFR would implicate there must be many reinfections. And those reinfections are still deadly. It would imply immunity isn't long-lasting. So best to keep routinely boosting your immunity through vaccines. This would probably be the least favorable scenario.

In the case of the higher IFR would implicate there's still some herd immunity to go. It also implicates infections are more deadly. So better boost herd immunity by getting the vaccine. This would actually be the more favorable scenario if we're going to be able to beat Covid.



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