That's not strictly true, you are more likely to die at age 2 than 10. And even if you have a ~50% chance of dieing at 100 there are people who make it to 120 or so.
About one in 45 billions. How many people in history did reliably make it to 120? exactly one, Jeanne Calment. One other did it to 119, and that's about it.
That doesn't change the fact that we have enough data to know you're more likely to win the national lottery than making it to 120. And you're probably more likely to fly by flapping your arms than making it to 130.
I am not going to argue that living that long is anything but the tail end of a huge bell curve. My point is simply there is no need to extrapolate when there are some actual numbers to work with. And when you look at the numbers you find that just like IQ the bell curve for lifespan is a little fatter at the tip than you might expect. At the same time there is a dip in rates of deaths ~10 so you are more likely to die at 1 than 21.
