Poker changed my thinking when I was 18 in a very powerful way [1]: always look for +EV [2] opportunities in life and do your best to minimize variance. It started out small, but now I view everything through that lens. Too bad I didn't see "picking out a college degree" that way, it would've saved a lot of time (and pain).
IMO this is fundamentally different than how most of my fellow CS classmates tend to think. A programmer thinks in quite a deterministic and non-probability based fashion. Almost all of them hated statistics because of it since it requires to put that probabilistic hat on. Not all of them, but most tend to.
Because of this type of thinking I have taken crazy long shot decisions. Why? In many situations there is nothing to lose and a lot to gain. I'd always then hear: "yea but it won't work, you're not gonna make it." Well, if I take long shot chances like that every day then the law of large numbers will be on my side. "Yea that's all nice and theoretical but it will never work!"
Have I told you about that time where I got on an exclusive party bus by offering to buy them a keg of beer (since I noticed they were out) while the entry ticket was $100? "But that's just lucky!"
Have I told you about a time where the corona dip happened and I did a value investment play into solid brick and mortar companies? "But that's just lucky!"
Have I told you about a time where I lost my bus ticket (to another country) and asked the bus driver to pick me up anyway just believing my story? "But that's just lucky in an unlucky situation!"
Have I told you about a time where I dated this model for a while? "Dude, you're just incredibly lucky."
Have I told you about all the times where things didn't pan out? "No" Well, that's because I forget them but I do remember that a lot more didn't pan out. But again, law of large numbers :)
"Yea, that's nice theory."
I just gave you 4 examples of it!
"Yea, but you're just lucky."
I'm not, my volume is high. The only luck I have is despite giving you a rational and empirical argument that someone like you (a CS student) still won't believe me. How is that luck? The competition on these type of long shots is incredibly low which increase my odds.
[1] And I never even became a professional! When I got to a semi pro level (consistently beating $.25/$.50 stakes) I found it unethical to continue. Back then my reasoning was: why would I not contribute anything to society while I can learn programming instead and actually build something for society? So I became a programmer instead.
I'm not disagreeing with a lot of your premise, but you said "I have nothing to lose". If/when you go on a cold streak it can be hard to maintain that attitude, and downright depressing. It's not rational, but it happens. The psychological toll can be very real, and going on tilt in real life can have major consequences.
Besides that, are you correct, or is it just survivor's bias? After all, literally everything you said could be replaced by the time I won $20,000, then $500,000, then $30,000 then $50,000 in the lottery. Someone is going to get things right.
And separately, in response to [1], it depends a lot on what programming you do. I consider professional poker players to be a lot more honorable and a better service to society than programmers active in the ad-tech or surveillance space. Or a lot in the financial market space.
100% on the money. One problem I've gained through doing programming is that it's so deterministic, and so your thought process eventually changes -- "if I do this, then this will most definitely happen"... gotta get out of that mindset. Gotta take risks when the downside is minimal or doesn't apply to you that much. Or when you know the weighted risk-return (sharpe ratio) is better than many think.
I believe that I am a lucky person. I also believe you make your own luck. And you do that by taking chances and opportunities that others would forego due to risk/likelihood of success being too high/too low.
IMO this is fundamentally different than how most of my fellow CS classmates tend to think. A programmer thinks in quite a deterministic and non-probability based fashion. Almost all of them hated statistics because of it since it requires to put that probabilistic hat on. Not all of them, but most tend to.
Because of this type of thinking I have taken crazy long shot decisions. Why? In many situations there is nothing to lose and a lot to gain. I'd always then hear: "yea but it won't work, you're not gonna make it." Well, if I take long shot chances like that every day then the law of large numbers will be on my side. "Yea that's all nice and theoretical but it will never work!"
Have I told you about that time where I got on an exclusive party bus by offering to buy them a keg of beer (since I noticed they were out) while the entry ticket was $100? "But that's just lucky!"
Have I told you about a time where the corona dip happened and I did a value investment play into solid brick and mortar companies? "But that's just lucky!"
Have I told you about a time where I lost my bus ticket (to another country) and asked the bus driver to pick me up anyway just believing my story? "But that's just lucky in an unlucky situation!"
Have I told you about a time where I dated this model for a while? "Dude, you're just incredibly lucky."
Have I told you about all the times where things didn't pan out? "No" Well, that's because I forget them but I do remember that a lot more didn't pan out. But again, law of large numbers :)
"Yea, that's nice theory."
I just gave you 4 examples of it!
"Yea, but you're just lucky."
I'm not, my volume is high. The only luck I have is despite giving you a rational and empirical argument that someone like you (a CS student) still won't believe me. How is that luck? The competition on these type of long shots is incredibly low which increase my odds.
[1] And I never even became a professional! When I got to a semi pro level (consistently beating $.25/$.50 stakes) I found it unethical to continue. Back then my reasoning was: why would I not contribute anything to society while I can learn programming instead and actually build something for society? So I became a programmer instead.
[2] Positive expected value