To be fair, we're still talking about 1:10,000 odds. You're much more likely to, for example, be hit by a car in the next year, even if you're in a high-risk category.
I tend to run numbers here and compare to events I'm worried or not worried about. I can live with 1:10,000 risks.
What are the odds of being hit by a car in the next year? I'm honestly curious, so I googled what I could find. From what I find the odds of an injury from an accident are 1:8393 which does support your statement (assuming every accident is getting hit by a car).
Your page, by the way, suggests 1:2000 for accidents. 49.3:100,000 = 1:2000, not 1:8393. The 1:8393 is for car accidents (which I guess includes being in a car, rather than just hit by a car).
CDC best guess mortality risk for his age group is 500/1000000 if he gets an infection. I would say risk probably not outweighing the benefit if it doesn’t prevent infection outright.
That is a laughable analysis. You are comparing the risk of death to the risk of a serious side effect. Why not compare apples to apples and compare the risk of heart complications requiring hospitalization (a fraction of the myocraditis and pericarditis cases caused by the vaccine) to the hospitalization rate of infection? You can normalize that by the 75% efficacy against Omicron if you want.
Who says the vaccine prevents heart complications from infection? All the statistics I’ve seen compare mainly mortality. From a pure risk vs reward of vaccine vs no vaccine, measuring mortality seems reasonable. When in history have we vaccinated to prevent side effects?
> When in history have we vaccinated to prevent side effects?
Polio.
* Around 72% have no symptoms.
* Around 25% have flu-like symptoms.
* The remaining 3% develop serious symptoms/damage.
* Paralytic polio hits around 0.5%, of which around 5-10% die when the paralysis reaches the lungs.
So including all infections, not just paralytic polio as you'll find in most searches (where they give the 5-10% statistic), the death rate was around 0.01% - 0.025%
So what is the mortality rate of the vaccine? Because this is the myocarditis rate, and the vast majority of cases didn't even require hospitalization. If you want to compare mortality rates, share a link.
And yes, the virus prevents heart complications from infection, because it prevents symptomatic infection.
It’s pretty evident at this point it doesn’t prevent symptomatic infection.
Death rate on both is close to 0. My point is if the vaccine doesn’t prevent infection (protecting other people) the vaccine risk vs reward is negligible for this age group. It should be purely up to the person to make their own decision. Not anyone else’s. Treat it like the flu shot.
I was vaccinated when I saw 90% at preventing infections, but now that’s been disproven I’ll call it how I see it. I’m moving on.
3 doses of pfizer seen to have more thab 75% protection against even Omicron.
It was 90% before mutations for two doses
The death rate on both are very low but much higher for the virus. However, the risk of hospitalization is significant with the virus, and much, much higher than with the vaccine.
I don't want to be hospitalized. That's a very bad time. The people that may die because I took up a hospital spot probably agree.
The flu doesn't threaten to collapse the healthcare system without vaccines. COVID does.
It's a pretty consistent pattern: Every flu season, hospitals are overwhelmed by the flu. Those links are just from date-range searches and copying the first result (hence bouncing around countries); each year had plenty more from other countries.
That is for a few hospitals. The flu is not serious to lead to an actual, complete, collapse of the healthcare system as a whole where no resources are left to treat immediately life threatening conditions. That's what we were facing with COVID.
Even with unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions and with vaccines, many first world countries were at the point where they had to cancel cancer surgeries that were not immediately crucial to survival. That's not something that happens with the flu.
Now the flu is very serious as your links show. The flu vaccine is around 40% effective against hospitalization (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33378531/), and around 70% of seniors are vaccinated against the flu, for a total reduction of around 28%.
If we removed that reduction, the flu could still not be severe enough to lead to a complete collapse of the healthcare system without serious intervention. With COVID, that is guaranteed to happen.
But you're right in that the flu is a serious disease that puts a lot of strain on the healthcare system and I can understand how my comment could lead to underestimating that.
> So what is the mortality rate of the vaccine? Because this is the myocarditis rate, and the vast majority of cases didn't even require hospitalization.
No, this is the rate of hospitalization or death due to myocarditis.
> The outcomes of interest in this study were hospital admission or death from myocarditis. Myocarditis was defined as the first hospital admission in the study period or death using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes (Supplementary Table 6).
This is actually not the case. In the UK, outpatient treatment and observations are considered to result in an admission, even if there is no inpatient care (hospitalization).
I tend to run numbers here and compare to events I'm worried or not worried about. I can live with 1:10,000 risks.