First of all, and most obvious, fed rate is controlled variable which regulator can change in response to what is happening to economic metrics.
The article somehow glosses over the fact.
I think, FRS changes base rate at least partially in response to amount of credit issued and total amount of money in circulation.
It takes in account many other variables, of course, but still. I think it is possible that fed will raise base rate immediately following rapid expansion of credit to prevent overheating and inflation. On the other side, when lending is insufficient, FRS might consider lowering rates. There is no surprise in that. It will lead to somewhat correlated graphs of credit issued and rates.
I would like to see if graphs and their derivatives could be predicted from one another.
First of all, and most obvious, fed rate is controlled variable which regulator can change in response to what is happening to economic metrics.
The article somehow glosses over the fact.
I think, FRS changes base rate at least partially in response to amount of credit issued and total amount of money in circulation.
It takes in account many other variables, of course, but still. I think it is possible that fed will raise base rate immediately following rapid expansion of credit to prevent overheating and inflation. On the other side, when lending is insufficient, FRS might consider lowering rates. There is no surprise in that. It will lead to somewhat correlated graphs of credit issued and rates.
I would like to see if graphs and their derivatives could be predicted from one another.