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~5 years is a reasonable timeframe for the scales to tip in the PRC's favor.

The PRC is basically "flying the wings" off of the Taiwanese airforce: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-may-be-trying-to-wear-...

>>>Dispersed AA missile launchers (MANPADs) that will deny complete aerial superiority over Taiwan airspace

MANPADs have altitude limitations. Fixed wing manned aircraft can fly high, and use precision munitions to prosecute targets. China also has a large fleet of combat drones that can fly the riskiest mission profiles, even drawing out Taiwanese air defenses by provoking fire, revealing themselves for counterattack.

>>>Satellite and other intelligence technology that can detect boarding ships and potentially guide missiles to eliminate them.

That would borderline on a pre-emptive attack which could be easily spun by the CCP in the court of international opinion. Also, the PRC's integrated air defense systems along the coast are damn heavy, not to mention their surface fleet's own air-defense ships. Good luck hitting ships in harbor with cruise missiles.

The main advantage Taiwan has is that the PLAN has insufficient amphibious shipping capacity to put enough combat power ashore in a reasonable timeframe. But they already have 2 brand-new LHAs out a total 8 planned: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_075_landing_helicopter_do...

Combine with the PLAN's existing 8 LPDs ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_071_amphibious_transport_... ), and STUFT (Ships Taken Up From Trade, aka "civilian RO/RO ships pressed into moving military hardware"), and they should be able to credibly move several divisions by 2025. With the growth in their surface combatant fleet and the modernization of their air force, they should be able to keep the US/Japan/Australia busy long enough to not interdict their amphibious assault.



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