If you think you are the top 10% of management favorites then you will not benefit. If you are a middling engineer then you will

I don’t have to be the top 10%. I just have to be better than the median. I should be better than the median in my mid 40s.

Yes and no you have to be better than the median in all categories some of which you have no control over. For example you need to work in a better than median group for a better than median boss in a better than median division with better than median experience.