It's hard for me to imagine a scenario where these sanctions (not just Mastercard and Visa, but all of it as a whole) are reduced without a total regime change in Russia. This is becoming a massive divestment, and I'm not sure it's a great idea.
There's no guarantee that what replaces Putin is going to be more Western and not reactionary. For every Russian that is cosmopolitan and globalist, there's a dozen Russians in small villages that are True Believers and will see this foreign pressure for what it is: replacing a Russian president that, at least in their mind, they put there.
Even if you assume that it's going to be a democratic and Western government that rises from the ashes, I think the timescale for this is in years, not months, and I think that the impact on the average citizen in The West is going to be massive while we wait that out.
I paid north of $80 last night for 18 gallons of fuel, and it's only going to get worse. In Europe, they're staring down the barrel of a significant energy crisis next winter. Energy is everything: it's fertilizer and it's heat. And this is all on the tail of record inflation and a shaky economy.
Hot take: I think this is going to backfire and we're going to see destabilization in Europe and America before Putin is ousted. War tends to be a boon for the economy in the West, but I see good reason why this time could be different.
They are not true believers. They will believe what is on the TV.
If you start running new propaganda - they will start believing it.
And you don't need a western-oriented government in russia. All that is needed is to remove one psycho, after that things will mostly go back to normal after russia compensates all damages and returns all territories.
We are headed into a new Cold War that will last decades. The days of globocorps marching into countries in every corner of the world and setting up shop as happened in the 90s-present are now seemingly over. The world will now move away from a trend towards globalisation to one of multipolarity and spheres of influence.
Russia has been caught out by these sanctions, but China looks to have prepared very well with much of its own sovereign digital and financial infrastructure.
You also can't discount how current pro-Western Russians will feel a year from now from economic collapse and total isolation? Probably not so pro-West anymore.
> Hot take: I think this is going to backfire and we're going to see destabilization in Europe and America before Putin is ousted
That's probable, but it's not "backfiring". It's a risk taken in order to stand up to a war criminal. He got away with it lightly last times ( Georgia, Crimea), a line had to be drawn, finally, or he'd simply never stop. Most Europeans are aware of the risks, and many support taking them now, because a line was crossed ( the donation drives, manifestations of support, rearmament plans, polls, etc. - it seems most Europeans support Ukraine and want their governments to act on that). If anything, i think this will bring Europe together, finally end up creating better military cooperation and coordination.
And it's always a game. Europe is staring down the barrel of an energy crisis, but Russia is staring down the barrel of economic ruin. Let's see how stable Putin's regime is with lack of everything bar basic foodstuffs ( furniture, electronics, vehicles, internet).
As stable as Venezuela and North Korea. Isolation does not help to ruin such regimes it’s vica versa - the more you isolate the people inside - the more support the regime gains. E.g. you can make high skilled professionals work for food because they have no other options and produce enough value to go on.
Energy crisis started long before the invasion. How much of the war is already priced in there? Europe might have to delay its green plans and even go back to coal.
I think it's remarkable how little the markets reacted to this momentous event. Maybe it's not going to be as bad as rumored?
There's no guarantee that what replaces Putin is going to be more Western and not reactionary. For every Russian that is cosmopolitan and globalist, there's a dozen Russians in small villages that are True Believers and will see this foreign pressure for what it is: replacing a Russian president that, at least in their mind, they put there.
Even if you assume that it's going to be a democratic and Western government that rises from the ashes, I think the timescale for this is in years, not months, and I think that the impact on the average citizen in The West is going to be massive while we wait that out.
I paid north of $80 last night for 18 gallons of fuel, and it's only going to get worse. In Europe, they're staring down the barrel of a significant energy crisis next winter. Energy is everything: it's fertilizer and it's heat. And this is all on the tail of record inflation and a shaky economy.
Hot take: I think this is going to backfire and we're going to see destabilization in Europe and America before Putin is ousted. War tends to be a boon for the economy in the West, but I see good reason why this time could be different.