When nations are forced to trade around Dollar sanctions for strategic resources that they need, they will use alternative currencies and alternative trade and financial mechanisms. I said nothing about the Ruble, which is a local national currency. We're discussing global reserve currency and mechanisms for global trade.
> propaganda, either by being convinced by it, or generating it
A rather cheap shot. You prove my final point about even greater pressures coming to bear on free speech and exchange of ideas.
I mean. By all means, explain further what is meant by "death blow", and how that somehow applies to the currency used by the global market. The rest of the world will be able to trade just fine, as far as currency exchange is concerned. The only issue is for those who have halved their buying power.
The the rest of the world clearly disagrees with your assessment, as if they did not, it would be reflected in the evaluation of the USD.
What it doesn't mean is a "collapse", which is how you are framing it. It won't be overnight. I assume you are a fellow geek so picture moving a huge infrastructure off of AWS and/or going "multi-cloud". It's not a switch that you flip and definitely not something upper management would want unless AWS keeps crashing and its fabled SLAs don't hold up. Assurances.
Entire supply chains (and everything that goes to make such things happen between nations and international corporations) have substantial inertia built in and will require adjustments. My prognosis is a terminal trajectory ("death blow") unless Russia collapses first, which would then force the hand of China, India, and the rest of fence sitters (which also include Mexico, Brazil, Israel, UAE, KSA, btw.)
"unless Russia collapses first". Yes, that is the very likely outcome indeed.
You are aware that the GDP of Russia is less than that of several individual European countries? And I mean individual. Germany alone has twice the GDP. You are woefully overestimating the Russian economy in the first place.
I know little about Russian economy but note that when sanctions were announced some in this forum were predicting Ruble going to 0 within a day. That said, my thoughts on this have factored in a limited time window for Russian Federation. A lot hinges on how the situation in Ukraine is finalized. Will UN mechanisms like JCPOA, UN peacekeepers, lifting of sanctions etc. be on the table? All TBD. US will prefer a long enough period to deploy conventional defenses. Russia a bit less, but long enough for it to address the giant holes in its economy.
But the global economic picture really requires understanding of how China decides to act. People tend to view the world according to their own civilizational context, so for example, the Western geopolitical analysis du jour posits a “Thucydides‘s Trap” vis a viz US and China. Chinese, on the other hand, have their own ready and applicable historic paradigms to apply to the global order. The ‘Three Kingdoms’ period of Chinese history is how the Chinese view the world. You will also need to understand that the fabled Chinese “century of humiliation” includes Russians in the list of offending nations. It’s a complex and subtle calculus for the Chinese leadership and having a very aggressive and successful RF on their border is not entirely in their interest in the long term. [but p.s. going “multi-cloud” definitely is what they want.]
I'm just confused. I feel like I'm having a conversation with a cnn text generator. Neither half makes much sense, and the latter half isn't contextually relevant.
Point to the "some in this forum were predicting Ruble going to 0 within a day". I don't buy it for a second. Or, I'm sure someone could have said it, but that too would be ridiculous. And, what is your point? Like, you said that the USD received a "death blow", which is bonkers. It makes zero sense in the global scale of things. And you can verify all of it. The index has had no short term negative effect, and the longer trend is still rising. That was the discussion. Some kind of ridiculous talking point about the dollar being unstable. I was keen to hear your thoughts regardless.
What I instead get is impressively, a complete board of geopolitics bullshit-bingo in a couple of sentences:
"civilizational context", "du jour posits a “Thucydides‘s Trap”", "ready and applicable historic paradigms", "global order", "‘Three Kingdoms’ period of Chinese history", "complex and subtle calculus for the Chinese leadership"
What on earth are you talking about? From your post history, it seemed like you were very interested in Russian economy, and Putin for that matter. Which is why I mentioned the Ruble. As for the other ramblings, if it wasn't auto generated, I don't know how that is relevant to anything. But, you do you.
> propaganda, either by being convinced by it, or generating it
A rather cheap shot. You prove my final point about even greater pressures coming to bear on free speech and exchange of ideas.