> can't quarantine and hospitalize people for omicron when it is not dangerous
There are enough people it’s dangerous for, especially in a population not widely exposed to it and who haven’t had mRNA boosters, that it can cause hospitals to jam up and pictures of grandma dying on a stretcher outside a regional hospital.
This is a political big deal when you’ve spent 2 years mouthing off about the decadent West’s poor handling of the pandemic.
I’ve been somewhat amazed at how China has handled it as of late. I get the short-term goal - stop Covid from taking hold by isolating new outbreaks. They have the manpower and the organization to isolate entire cities, do mass testing and lockdown neighborhoods.
But:
1. It’s pretty clear with Omnicron the higher infectivity is making that task harder and lockdowns longer
2. The lockdowns have real economic impact that you might be able to weather in the short-term AND while other countries are in the same bucket, but it’s not a long term solution.
3. What is their long-term goal? Maintain zero Covid forever? Impossible unless a highly effective vaccine that prevents transmission is invented.
I have family in another authoritarian country that took a similar approach to China. It bit them in the ass when the outbreaks were bigger than they could handle so then it became massive vaccination (by coming hat in hand to the companies/countries that they had earlier told “we have it under control”).
Now it’s pretty much endemic, but hospitals aren’t overwhelmed so the government is just forging ahead. I think mostly due to the massive economic hit the country took.
My guess is China will end up doing the same as the Western countries - once they realize Omicron isn’t that serious in vaccinated individuals, they’ll just stop restrictions and pretend that was the plan all along and pat themselves on the back on how much better and smarter China handled it.
Gradually they'll start the propaganda engines to normalise its spread, and at some point they'll drop all restrictions while somehow spinning it as a success. They can't do it suddenly, like was done in the West, as that'd contradict their entire strategy far too violently.
Precisely. It’ll be amazing to watch as it happens and most people won’t even notice, but China will basically take the Western approach (post-vaccine) and somehow claim they did it better and than that was the plan all along (despite massive lockdown while everyone was vaccinated).
Do we need to have a vaccine contrarian every damn thread posted on this forum and anywhere else on the Internet? We as a society have been over this for 2 years, and every time it's the same ignorant arguments that keep being debunked, and like clockwork every time there's someone ready to voice their pet opinion about the pandemic that goes against any research and common sense.
It's like the hellish version of xkcd's lucky 10,000. I guess it was your turn today.
My response was related to above post regarding Sinovac given Pfizer and Moderna are similar against Omicron.
Not a vaccine contrarian just one of the person who got infected after booster shot, will take a vaccine again but science has one trait which is self correction and overwhelming data shows that Omicron is mild whether vaccinated or not vaccinated. So its better to do a clinical trials and studies not funded by Pharma industry or interest groups, objectively to determine if Omicron played a pivotal role and not vaccine in reducing Covid-19 fatality globally.
Yes, we do, because the contrarians are correct, again. Just like they were in 2020 when everyone arguing that lockdowns weren't working were getting downvoted to hell and yelled at for "disinformation", just like when they pointed out that the models were based on stupid assumptions and that mask mandates weren't having any observable effect.
The vaccines are useless against Omicron. They don't stop people getting it. They appear to make no difference to severity (it was 25% vaxxed South Africa that pointed out everyone getting it had mild symptoms). That is a stone cold fact.
Indeed it appears to actually be the opposite - the UK, one of the only countries that publishes actual case rate data (instead of TNCC positivity ratio comparisons), shows that people who are vaccinated get Omicron at a much higher rate than those who aren't. The cause is probably an immune priming/training effect. That data is real though, it's not something you can make disappear by throwing a hissy fit when someone points it out.
The 3rd shot of the mRNA vaccine clearly does reduce infection from Omicron somewhat (I would call it more than useless for that effect, you can call it whatever you want).
They also are still very effective at preventing severe disease (against Omicron). This is the opposite of useless.
Can confirm triple Pfeizer rendered what I assume was Omicron to something relatively mild for this non drinking, normal BMI near 50s male. Getting Covid still made me feel rather rubbish for a few days.
Kudos and my personal thanks to the vaccine developers.
For almost everyone, vaccinated or not, Omicron is a minor nuisance. Somehow everyone seems to claim they have minor symptoms because they got vaccinated. This is human psychology 101 as it validates your decision for getting vaccinated.
"Almost everyone" always does a lot of work in statements like that.
It's bizarre to call out the "decision to get vaccinated", as if it is something people should be uncomfortable with, having spent a bit of time getting a vaccine that is clearly safer than the illness it protects against.
Yeah, a complete no brainer for me to get myself and my family vaccinated.
Of course I can't A-B test my own ability to cope with Covid with zero vaccinations and triple boosted, so the points of the person who replied to me strike me as just silly.
I experienced them with triple shots, and was happy if that might have reduced my exposing time somewhat if applicable. There definitely was a grey area of time between kind of noticing something akin to symptoms, and using one of the precious RAT tests. Most of that time spent using a mask around people, just because default.
I also donate blood, so maybe that's a character trait. Empathy, I mean.
Wrt. mRNA boosters, I know it is a common talking point that China is in trouble because it doesn't have mRNA-vaccines but I believe the vaccines that China have is of the type as the AstraZeneca vaccine, that is commonly used in the UK which now is free of COVID-restrictions. In other words; if is China is willing, it can go down the same path of vax-and-let-it-rip.
>Many many fewer Chinese have immunity from having had the virus than Brits
Exactly, quick, strict lockdowns at first puts off the infections to come later when you return a largely non-immune population to business as usual. Zero-COVID should not be the aim, but only to spread out the load on hospitals and emergency care facilities. You want your vulnerable population to get vaccinated, and the less vulnerable who become infected no matter what, build your immune base.
"but I believe the vaccines that China have is of the type as the AstraZeneca vaccine"
Absolutely not. And that is they key problem.
Personally I was quite sure that Beijing would allow Biontech sooner or later, especially since the Chinese company Fosun was a very smart early investor in BNT.
But unfortunately it seems Xi's nationalism is now so strong that he is willing to let many people die for it.
Neither of these points are quite correct - mRNA vaccines were extensively used for both initial vaccinations and boosters in the UK. IIRC the AZ vaccine was quite quickly withdrawn for everyone under 40.
Minor thing, but that'll probably be expanded to include Novavax in a relatively short amount of time. Not that it matters much for the progression of the pandemic (it's far too late to make a big difference, and will only mop up a few vaccine hesitant people).
China is more likely to go the Hong-Kong route (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60474342), i.e. a very high death rate even with Omicron because they (unlike the UK) haven't managed to vaccinate a high percentage of their old population.
I'm curious if Chinese hospitals would actually be overwhelmed. Most of the limitations in US hospitals are due to inefficient human resource allocation - our system incentivises many optional and low priority procedures, because that's where the profit is. A lot of our hypothetical capacity is "wasted" since our government can't go and tell e.g. dermatologists to start treating COVID patients and relocate to regions that are harder hit.
In a managed economy like China, is this as big a deal? At least conceptually they should be better able to reallocate scarce medical resources than we are.
There are many people who will die from many common diseases that are communicable, including the standard flu. This argument doesn't hold up under scrutiny.
At risk people (the vast, vast minority) need to self quarantine instead of having the unrealistic expectation that the everyone should instead of them.
Things that can kill a 70 year old include such threats as falling over, or moderate exercise. At no point in thousands of years of human history have we seriously tried to keep all the 70 year olds who were alive at the start of the year alive at the start oft he next year. It isn't possible.
60s is a different thing, but at 70 there are very real questions about whether a quarantine is even worth it. Do you risk losing half your remaining lifespan in a quarantine, attempting to avoid a 30% chance of death? The calculus is grim, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored.
Sorry but what's the source that mRNA boosters work against Omicron ? I thought it's more like the vaccines neutralize threat from the original 2-3 variants and Omicron isn't deadly in and of itself.
Also maybe this is China specific paranoia since neighbouring India doesn't care much and they seem to be doing fine wrt Omicron.
There are enough people it’s dangerous for, especially in a population not widely exposed to it and who haven’t had mRNA boosters, that it can cause hospitals to jam up and pictures of grandma dying on a stretcher outside a regional hospital.
This is a political big deal when you’ve spent 2 years mouthing off about the decadent West’s poor handling of the pandemic.