Prices will keep going up while there is more demand than supply, and the supply shortage is mostly political. I advise you and everyone else feeling locked out of the housing market to pressure your representatives to allow more housing to be built.
At the same time because of supply and demand, even when more and more apartments are being built I would expect single family homes to still go for top of market rates and be in very high demand forever. The supply we are adding into most built out areas is just apartment stock mostly optimized for the recent college grad vs a family with children (e.g. mostly 1 or 2 bedrooms, and a pool/hottub area clearly optimized for people drinking alcohol than kids playing), because these areas are built out by definition and there isn't available land to add any more greenfield single family home stock to the local inventory. That single family home stock imo will always be constrained in cities and will never get cheaper. Apartments and condos might see their costs not swell so much, but not ever detached homes imo.
Detached homes are a very specific type of housing well suited to specific needs. The problem [In the U.S.] has been that suburbian-style has been prescribed, with little flexibility to accommodate other needs. Lawns, backyards/front yards, and setbacks are great if that's what one desires and is willing to pay for.
However, not everyone wants that, yet is forced to pay for it through zoning rules requiring them. Tall multi-storey townhomes are a great middleground that reduces land costs and retain many of the benefits of SFHs, yet are literally illegal to build in much of the US.
A ton of land in competitive markets is being wasted through zoning, to many people's [And the climate's] detriment.
Housing developers are sitting on huge swathes of land that have planning permission (every council has a housing development plan), but by building slower, and with no real penalties for not using the land (LVT or similar) they can pad their profit margins by trickling properties onto the market.
> I advise you and everyone else feeling locked out of the housing market to pressure your representatives to allow more housing to be built.
I'm currently building a house and the problem is getting people to come out and do the damn work. Not sure what complaining to a politician is going to do about this. Even white collar workers are hard to get. I went through three architects.
There are plenty of housing developments going up. Just not a large enough pool of people to work in them.
Mostly, not entirely. Furthermore, this housing crunch has been decades in the making, not something that's suddenly happened, as evidenced by prices spiraling out of control. It's no surprise that trying to build a new home during a worldwide labor and supply chain crunch is especially difficult.
Complaining to a politician may not provide immediate relief now, but in the long term if supply was able to meet demand, prices should stabilize.
The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is today.
Most of the country never (in recent times) had a housing shortage before now. So it might be a political issue for the people who live in a handful of coastal cities, but this isn't a political issue in most states.
I have years worth of zillow pricing emails in my inbox, if I go back to '18, YoY price increases were like <1% in most zip codes and 2-3% in the nicer ones. Recent emails have prices going up 20%+ all over town.
I'm in the coast, so I won't pretend to fully understand the markets elsewhere, however, it should be noted that ~50% of the U.S. population lives near the coast, or a constraining border limiting expansion.
For a very very large portion of the population it's land use and zoning rules that are constraining supply and causing everyone else to pay more than they otherwise would.
