Slightly more than two months before Iowans begin voting, polling shows the open-seat race in the U.S. House 2nd District as a dead heat.
In a live poll of 406 likely voters by Harper Polling, Republican state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Rita Hart each had the support of 41 percent of the respondents
So this is exactly the kind of race where a smart cheater would cheat, not trying to get Trump to win California or Biden to win West Virginia. But I assume people who are corrupt and cheat are going to be corrupt and cheat even when it is not in their own interest. And just by chance that will affect other elections happening at the same time.
No, it's easy to know what the tight races are likely to be, and very difficult to predict which races are going to come down to a margin of just dozens of votes; it's much harder to predict those races than it is to predict the winners of races, since they're very uncommon, and lopsided polling is not.
In Greece, we've seen quite a lot of cases where polling failed spectacularly to detect even large vote swings. Given that those polls are usually being done by organizations closely tied to political parties, I guess they weren't just incompetent. So there's probably quite a lot of error margin there.
Assuming that's true, you just need to know when it is going to be close, and that only requires polling, not prescience.
https://www.thegazette.com/article/polling-shows-iowa-2nd-di...
Slightly more than two months before Iowans begin voting, polling shows the open-seat race in the U.S. House 2nd District as a dead heat.
In a live poll of 406 likely voters by Harper Polling, Republican state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Rita Hart each had the support of 41 percent of the respondents
So this is exactly the kind of race where a smart cheater would cheat, not trying to get Trump to win California or Biden to win West Virginia. But I assume people who are corrupt and cheat are going to be corrupt and cheat even when it is not in their own interest. And just by chance that will affect other elections happening at the same time.