Xcode and Safari will get special exemptions, of course.
But putting aside short-run user backlash, do you really think Apple gives a damn whether Firefox, Chrome or VLC run on OS X? Judging by iOS, they might actually prefer it if they didn't.
After that you're left with archiving, text editors and Dropbox (which Apple might well want to replace with iCloud in the long run), which doesn't sound like that much to me.
But putting aside short-run user backlash, do you really think Apple gives a damn whether Firefox, Chrome or VLC run on OS X? Judging by iOS, they might actually prefer it if they didn't.
After that you're left with archiving, text editors and Dropbox (which Apple might well want to replace with iCloud in the long run), which doesn't sound like that much to me.