Looks like the decline in eastern europe is largely due to economic reasons and people migrate torwards the west? The economic decline in eastern europe after the end of the cold war and the neoliberal privatisation as well as corruption and mismanaged in each economy is something that's not often discussed. Beeing in eastern europe feels sometimes like being in a western colony because most corporations / supermarkets / products are just western products. Also more often than not it's not the place for innovation but rather cheap labor workbenches for western corporations. Not sure if that was a given in the 90ies or wether it was the result of the politics at this time. If anyone can recommend some literature I'd be interested. For the former GDR (also big population loss due to economic reasons) one could argue that at least some industries were killed to avoid competition from western corporations but of course it's difficult to reliable connect cause and effect. Is in the EU eastern nations also this oligarch problem that ukraine/russia inflicted on themselves?
While your stereotypes certainly match for some Eastern European countries, they are quite mismatched for some others. I was very surprised about the Baltic countries being high up in the list. They generally have high education, low corruption and are driving innovation. Estonia for example is the country with the best digitalisation in Europe and likely amongst the highest in the world.
I recently was talking to a company with a team in Serbia. I honestly didn't know what to expect, good or bad, as I didn't know much about the country. I was blown away - they were very astute, using the latest tech, and spoke English probably better than I do as an American. Definitely opened my eyes - as Americans, we generally don't hear much about the country.
They don't take local factors into account at all. The local Russian speakers have emigrated at a larger rate than say ethnic Latvians. So, if they just project past trends to the future they are bound to be wrong.
Also, immigration is getting noticeably stronger. And then, the elephant in the room. They don't seem to align these projections with the climate change projections. The Baltics are going to continue to have a hospitable climate with no water availability issues. Unlike most of Southern Europe, and many other places in the world.
So, I'd be willing to put my money against these projections turning out correct.
I don’t know about Estonia, but Lithuania (number 2) has prices like in Switzerland with salaries being small fraction of Swiss ones. Plus political instability. Just watch the Taiwan embassy opening and Chinese retaliation. Or railroad to Kaliningrad blockade. Plus steadily declining level of education and health care.
