People live for many years, so there's a long lag between when total fertility rate drops below replacement and when total population actually declines.
For example, Japan's total fertility rate remained below replacement since 1974, but its total population has been consistently shrinking only since 2007:
For example, Japan's total fertility rate remained below replacement since 1974, but its total population has been consistently shrinking only since 2007:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan#Vital_st...