Not disagreeing with the overall thesis, but spreads between Russian and non-Russian commodities have already started narrowing(there is also now a big question of what qualifies as Russian commodities, as for oil you could realistically blend it and sell it as something else). The difference is that the arbitragers are not going to be Trafigura and Glencore but something Chinese/Turkish/Indian.
Global economy doesn't work without Russian commodities flowing in some form or another to the West. As soon as that has to be true, the question is what sort of arbitrage spread is available/how crowded the trade is as European governments need to maintain some level of credibility/severity on dealing with Russia. Urals Brent spread is still being shown as -35 but I've already heard anecdotal evidence of people settling for less so not sure if that is accurate.
Global economy doesn't work without Russian commodities flowing in some form or another to the West. As soon as that has to be true, the question is what sort of arbitrage spread is available/how crowded the trade is as European governments need to maintain some level of credibility/severity on dealing with Russia. Urals Brent spread is still being shown as -35 but I've already heard anecdotal evidence of people settling for less so not sure if that is accurate.