This makes no sense. Without the gas, Russia loses leverage and there would be no dependence of Russian hydrocarbons. Germany always could buy more expensive gas from Ukraine and USA, and now they have no other choice.
The whole war makes no sense. Putin had lost his senses.
1. Putin seriously cite Dugin[1]. Putin acts like he believes this bullshit.
2. There was a lot of people who on different occasions told "Putin wouldn't do that, it would make no sense", so then Putin could prove them wrong later by doing it. This war is one of examples of that kind. Or MH17: why to hit a plane with a missile? There was no sense in it. But it just happened. Why to massacre people in Bucha? It makes no sense.
So, when you talk about Russia the argument "makes no sense" doesn't mean anything. If it made no sense in an alternate reality were Putin resides, then it might be an interesting argument. But in his alternate reality it makes perfect sense to stop selling gas to EU.
It makes sense to stop selling gas to the EU, but Russia already did that weeks ago.
What makes little sense is then blowing up the pipeline. Russia were already not selling gas, why would they take the extra step of blowing up the pipeline? That removes it as possible leverage for future negotiations.
And if you have the capability to blow up pipelines, why not blow up all the other pipelines transporting gas from Scandinavia to the rest of the EU? Make Nordstream the only option.
It actually makes more sense for Germany or one of their allies to have blown up Nordstream, to remove the temptation to for Germany to open it back up in the middle of winter when they are suffering massive gas shortages.
My experience of such discussions hints that they lead nowhere. It is a classical mystery. It is impossible to solve without additional information. But if we need to guess based on our current knowledge, then Putin is the best bet: he is a liar, he disrespect all the rules, he likes sudden unexpected moves, he likes to act undercover. I know no other entity that can have reasons to blow up pipelines who matches better.
But Putin has been operating with good internal logic this entire time (even if the assumptions driving that logic have been flawed at points).
And I'm not really sure what logic would cause him to attack Nordstream. The two best ideas I have are:
1. He wants to remove an option of retreat for Germany. Putin things that with Nordstream inactive, Germany can wait until they get low on gas in the middle of winter before crawling back to Russia and conceding in exchange for gas. But if it's damaged, Germany kind of need to start repairing it now, and Putin can force them to concede sooner. And Putin probably feels short on time.
2. Putin is already planning for a civil war, and doesn't think he will control Nordstream during a civil war. By destroying Nordstream, it will be harder for some civil war faction to turn it back on.
Neither are great theories. At least without some extra evidence to suggest Putin is thinking along one (or both) of these lines.
It makes all the sense. The problem is that most don't care for reality or other side's points, but would rather make assumptions based on impressions, based on propaganda narratives.
Obviously, the more the assertions are based on values and politics rather than reality, the less sense it would make.
> 1. Putin seriously cite Dugin[1]. Putin acts like he believes this bullshit.
You didn't link an actual reference, just Dugin's wikipedia page.
> Or MH17: why to hit a plane with a missile? There was no sense in it. But it just happened.
Ukraine had been conducting air strikes over that territory at that time.
I don't think this is the case - when pipes are installed, they are exposed to seawater, and they are segmented, and there must be a way to replace the damaged segment without having to redo the whole pipeline. It won't fill the whole pipeline even if there's a hole in it.
