Indeed. I'm no Russia apologist, I want this war to end as badly as anyone else. But it also doesn't make sense for them to perform these attacks. For better or worse, the invasion of Ukraine makes sense, because it used to be a part of the Soviet Union, so there is some sort of explanation for the behavior, although it's a shitty one.
But making holes in these pipes doesn't come with any reasonable explanation, as far as I can tell. The most probably explanation I can come up with, is NATO and/or allies doing the attacks themselves in order to justify an invasion of Russia to "stop the attacks on foreign soil", but that's borderline conspiracy theory, so not even sure I want to go there.
I guess I'm hoping it's Russia, but I find it far-fetched to believe, because what possible reason could they have for doing so? Demonstrating capabilities? Also feels weak... But then again, Russia is not exactly acting with reason at the moment, so I guess anything is possible.
> The most probably explanation I can come up with, is NATO and/or allies doing the attacks themselves in order to justify an invasion of Russia to "stop the attacks on foreign soil", but that's borderline conspiracy theory, so not even sure I want to go there.
I know you're not trying to go there, but even this hypothetical doesn't make any sense. The attacks are on Russian-owned pipelines in international waters, there's nothing for NATO to defend. Furthermore, if NATO wanted to do a false flag, it would make more sense to blow up Chernobyl, since Russia has previously threatened it and NATO has historically emphasized that attacks that spread nuclear fallout over NATO countries are grounds for article 5.
To be clear, I don't see a clear benefit for any of the major players here; even the suggestions that it's Putin strike me as wishful thinking. Something strange is going on.
I don’t think there are single entity that obviously benefits. Russia, Ukraine, the EU and multiple outside actors have reasons to attack the N1 pipeline. The slightly less obvious secondary effect is a push to open the N2 pipeline but that’s just a start.
Beyond state level actors you need to consider everything from Russia’s Gasprom having pending lawsuits this helps with to 3rd party gas suppliers benefiting from increasing sales at extreme gas prices. Stock speculators could be located anywhere and benefit from knowing about such attacks ahead of time. Even something as odd as a fringe environmental group could be behind it.
At best depending on how difficult such an attack is you can somewhat narrow things down.
It scares the German population, because every day here the news was about "are we going to make it through the winter". 50% of all houses are heated with Gas. The fact that no gas was flowing through doesn't really matter and likely wasn't going to for a while anyway still worries everyone.
It will make the pro-Russian arguments sound better, if people are scared.
The pipelines were useless to the russian goverment beforehand since they weren't sending any gas through it. It doesn't matter what the protesters wanted, Russia wasn't sending any gas. So there was never an "alternative".
But blowing them up means that people get worried again. The worries about having enough gas to last the winter increases. Russia wants a fearful Europe, not a determined one. This plays right into their hands, and it doesn't really matter whether people know it was them.
They are waging a proxy war with NATO through the Ukraine. And the fact that they are also threatening nuclear weapons just confirms their strategy in regards to Europe. They want a Europe that is afraid of Russia.
> The pipelines were useless to the russian goverment beforehand since they weren't sending any gas through it.
But they could have. That's what having an alternative means!
Putin was recently, explicitly, fishing for concessions in return for gas through those pipelines.
And people in Germany - a minority, for sure, but still - were demonstrating in the streets, demanding that Germany should make those concessions for gas.
Yes, Putin wants a fearful Europe, and he already had it. Now he has a Europe that's got nothing to lose, gas-wise, for the winter.
This is getting to me. How can people be so blind? IMO, believing that Putin blew up his own pipeline rather than Norway's which just opened (it's very close, if you can reach one you can reach the other), is the same as believing the rebels in Douma used chemical weapons on themselves. If they had them, wouldn't they use it on the enemy instead?
In Douma, people claiming a false flag self-attack had to contend with the fact that the area was surrounded, in fact it fell by the next day. I kept arguing with them, wouldn't it be very easy to catch the false flaggers in the act?
And with the accusation you're making now that Russia did it (which is also a false flag accusation), it happened in Danish and Swedish waters. Near Bornholm. Those Baltic islands are of great strategic importance (much to the inhabitants' annoyance), so you can bet the shallow sea is full of listening equipment, and that spy satellites track every fricking seabird. Yet they missed a Russian sabotage operation?
Also, if Russia wanted an excuse for mobilization etc, why didn't he blow up the pipeline in his own waters, or at least closer to it? Then he could at least claim to be attacked! It would be a disastrously expensive manufactured casus belli, but at least it would have been that. This is instead, if you assume Russia did it, playing right into the US's hands! They've hated that pipeline for years!
And people in Germany - a minority, for sure, but still - were demonstrating in the streets, demanding that Germany should make those concessions for gas.
Now you've got those same Russians screaming about how evil and awful it is that Germany is allied with the United States. Gee, who does that benefit?
Yet they missed a Russian sabotage operation?
Wouldn't they have caught an American sabotage operation? America as this mythical beast that's so powerful they can destroy a major gas pipeline without being noticed (or with everyone too scared to react) is precisely what makes your argument so farcical (well that and your insistence that the attacks happened in Danish territory).
And with the accusation you're making now that Russia did it (which is also a false flag accusation), it happened in Danish and Swedish waters.
No. The explosions happened in international waters.
> Wouldn't they have caught an American sabotage operation?
I'm explicitly saying they would have been in on it.
The attacks happened in the exclusive economic zone, which are not typically called international waters. Countries keep close track of their exclusive economic zones, even if they DON'T happen to be strategically important straits, which the sea between Bornholm and Poland absolutely is.
My money is on a faction of the Russian military either attempting to sabotage Putin or alternately attempting to block off potential routes to negotiation to force a confrontation. Both are plausible.
US intelligence works closely with the UK and Germany. If it was the US it was with Germany's knowledge and approval.
Have you forgotten Snowden's revelations? They spied like crazy on EU politicians. Germany is not even a 5 eyes country.
That's an example that they're both able and willing to manipulate German politics and keep Germany in the dark about it. They would probably have needed Sweden's and Denmark's cooperation, but again there is recent history they are very willing to give the US whatever covert assistance they ask for.
Maybe we should split the players: Putin and Russia might be different arguments. Like, if Putin goes away, the "new Russia" could be seen as "clean" thus NS1/2 imports would be acceptable again. This scenario fails if the pipes fail though.
Considering all the Russian energy execs dying mysteriously and Putin being a KGB guy, Putin pulling something like this to make the him the only option and making “the only way out is through” for this invasion… doesn’t seem impossible.
Maybe he thinks things will be okay if his new annexations come to a relative peace and have grudging acceptance from Europe like they did with Crimea. I doubt it, but…
But making holes in these pipes doesn't come with any reasonable explanation, as far as I can tell. The most probably explanation I can come up with, is NATO and/or allies doing the attacks themselves in order to justify an invasion of Russia to "stop the attacks on foreign soil", but that's borderline conspiracy theory, so not even sure I want to go there.
I guess I'm hoping it's Russia, but I find it far-fetched to believe, because what possible reason could they have for doing so? Demonstrating capabilities? Also feels weak... But then again, Russia is not exactly acting with reason at the moment, so I guess anything is possible.