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>That's a massive difference in collision risk.

Is it? It's a big difference in absolute numbers but that doesn't mean it's a meaningful difference in Risk.

If both numbers are quite small relative to the level of concern, the difference can still be irrelevant.

My point is that it takes more than just looking at the number of satilites to understand risk. You need to do the work to show how the collision chance compares to what an acceptable limit might be. Both cases could be very acceptable (or both cases could be unacceptable).



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