> Difficult to see where infantry can still be useful.
Infantry can disperse to defeat the weapon systems you're thinking about. That's where tanks currently really struggle.
Tanks have been overmatched for some time both in the open, and in the close, in both conventional and unconventional conflicts, and we don't really seem to have major ideas to solve that (with the exception of active protection, which only works against an unsophisticated enemy as you're broadcasting your position.)
Also - I said 'where they go forward from today' - I didn't say they were useless.
Where we go forward today is that tanks will evolve along the same lines as naval surface combatants (frigates / destroyers / cruisers) have, just a few decades later. Warships used to primarily rely on cannons for offense (with large gun crews) and armor for defense, but the advent of strike aircraft and then guided missiles made those designs obsolete. Now surface ships have minimal gun armaments and little or no armor. Instead they rely on their own guided missiles and aircraft (helicopters and drones) for offense, and speed plus active measures (interceptor missiles, EW, decoys) for defense.
I predict that the "tank" of the future will have a smaller main gun and thinner armor. Instead of slugging it out toe-to-toe with enemy armored vehicles and fortifications it will hang back and locate targets using it's own drones plus data links from other platforms. Then attack those targets using indirect fire missiles and suicide drones. Crews will be smaller, probably just two, with the option to operate temporarily uncrewed under remote control or with some limited autonomy. Survivability will be provided through high mobility, some low-observability (stealth) technology, EW, and updated active protection systems. Think of a mini "frigate" driving around on land.
This was the thinking behind the Leopard 1. It had really thin armor compared to peers because it didn't think it mattered. Later upgrades added spaced armor etc to help with ATGMs, and the Leo 2 had Chobbham so it was kind of a rejection of that theory.
Missiles on tanks have been a thing for decades and really don't add much value. Main gun rounds are much cheaper, and you'll always need something that can blow up fortifications. And crew size can't really get much lower than 3 (four is really optimal) because of pulling guard duty, maintenance etc. Replacing a tread with two guys leaves no one to pull security watch.
The design philosophy behind the Leopard 1 wasn't necessarily wrong, just too early. Air-to-air missiles on aircraft were a thing for decades but didn't really add much value at first. Until around 1990 when the technology improved enough that they started working really well.
Modern top-attack ATGMs have become so lethal that no amount of armor is going to be effective. So if tanks are going to continue having a role in high-intensity conflicts then they need to avoid getting hit. That means hanging back and using off-board sensors and stand-off weapons instead of direct fire cannons. This will be tremendously expensive, but still cheaper than the alternative. Again mimicking the evolution of surface warships.
Future armored units are going to contain a mix of manned and unmanned combat vehicles. So they're going to have to figure out a way to do maintenance on vehicles with zero crew. Probably by having extra maintainers follow behind in transport and engineering vehicles. Sure this will slow down some work, but what's the alternative?
Zero crew maintenance will never be effective. You'll just be doing what the Soviets are doing in Ukraine; abandoning $25M tanks when they throw a track. Or you'll be dooming maintenance crews to a quick death.
And you can't wave away the flaws of the Leo 1 as being too early for its time. The trend has been 180º in the opposite direction.
Focusing on top attack weapons is missing the forest for the trees. There are numerous weapons that can destroy a tank:
- Mines
- Artillery, both unguided and guided
- ATGMs, whether top attack or side. All can penetrate most armor if they hit.
- SMAW/RPG etc
- Air launched unguided rockets
- Anti-tank grenades dropped by COTS drones
- Ad infinitum
Yet no military (including Ukraine) is saying they don't want tanks, only armchair generals who see another RMA in the mist. There's a saying "Ships are safe in a harbor, but that's not what ships are for." Trying to make sure a tank is invulnerable ends up being a fool's errand. Use them appropriately, and they'll be fine.
I'm thinking of a "tank" more in terms of some continuity with the current concept of operations regardless of the exact hardware. Navy destroyers look completely different today than they did during WW2 but still perform the same missions. This notional future tank will probably share some components with a family of other similar AFVs, but will be optimized for striking hard targets rather than for troop transport, air defense, or whatever other AFV roles are needed.
>(with the exception of active protection, which only works against an unsophisticated enemy as you're broadcasting your position.)
Modern war (what NATO does, not what Russia does) has radar sharing, so one radar behind the lines, or in an airplane well behind the lines - shares the information to everyone. Just a few well hardened/defended radars it all you need, nobody else is using active radar.
Infantry can disperse to defeat the weapon systems you're thinking about. That's where tanks currently really struggle.
Tanks have been overmatched for some time both in the open, and in the close, in both conventional and unconventional conflicts, and we don't really seem to have major ideas to solve that (with the exception of active protection, which only works against an unsophisticated enemy as you're broadcasting your position.)
Also - I said 'where they go forward from today' - I didn't say they were useless.