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Does it make sense to invest in a hydrogen powered vehicle company?


I think that depends entirely on what you think will happen to battery prices, and if you mean road vehicles or all vehicles.

Because aircraft have extreme energy density requirements, I don't expect chemical[0] batteries to ever replace combustible fuel.

If you think the battery prices will remain roughly where they are now, then sure it makes sense to invest in hydrogen road vehicles; but if you think that battery prices will reduce substantially, then I don't think it does make any sense to invest in hydrogen vehicles.

Why? Because although BEVs are (IIRC) a net cost saving over their lifetime, even at current battery cost, the purchase cost is too high for most people (the Sam Vimes Boots theory of socioeconomic unfairness comes to mind), but if batteries get much cheaper then poor people will also be able to afford them and hydrogen road vehicles won't have a market to serve.

[0] There's a whole bunch of interesting storage ideas which right now are basically just sci-fi, but unless you wish to invest a few tens of millions in fundamental research on nuclear isomers or if you can use quantum tricks to dynamically alter phosphorescence half lives from weeks to hours and back, don't.


> If you think the battery prices will remain roughly where they are now, then sure it makes sense to invest in hydrogen road vehicles;

No it doesn't. Electric cars are already beating Hydrogen vehicles on price. And Hydrogen vehicles don't make a profit, they lose lots of money. while Tesla has a 30% automotive margin on their EVs.

Also, batteries will certainty get cheaper. Even if the materials don't get cheaper, production and an density improvements will make them cheaper. We know pretty well what standard batteries will look like 5 years from now because the product cycle is so long.

And the problem you mention is equally solve by people taking on bigger loans and paying more interest instead of paying for gas.


> Electric cars are already beating Hydrogen vehicles on price.

Aim for where the ball will be, not where it is. But also don't take your eye off it.

> Also, batteries will certainty get cheaper.

While I share this opinion, my certainty is only at the level of "yeah, sounds likely", which is not appropriate for a discussion about what to invest in.

> And the problem you mention is equally solve by people taking on bigger loans and paying more interest instead of paying for gas.

Poor people get the worst rates and the least options, including in some cases no option to get loans.




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