Man, this takes a ton of room to do the CoreML conversions - ran out of space doing the unet conversion even though I started with 25GB free. Going on a delete spree to get it up to 50GB free before trying again.
I suspect it was virtual memory - the CoreML conversion progress was at 32Gi at one point and there's only 16GB in this laptop. That would explain why it was consuming 30Gi+ of disk space when the output CoreML models only totalled 2.5Gi.