I'm normally with you on the whole "rich people don't go to jail" thing, but I think this is a misread of this situation. He's in no way a member of the upper crust of our aristocracy – he had money, but he hadn't yet traded some of that money for power.

He currently has no money, and he ripped off a lot of people with money. He'll go to jail.

He was new rich and old rich will never skip a chance to slap down the new rich to keep them in their place.

It is very unclear how much money he has under his control.

Bernie Madoff was arrested so quickly because he confessed directly to FBI agents, after confessing to his sons who contacted the FBI:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/there-is-no-innocent-expla...

He is not a member of the upper crust - he was trying to muscle his way in but he went down in flames. I swear there are a lot of bot like comments that come through here without thinking.

If they can prove it was fraud he'll be going to jail. Depends how smart they were and how well they covered their tracks.

Given that Caroline Ellison supposedly told the whole hedge fund she and 3 other people knew about the FTX customer funds being transferred, I dont think they did a decent job, that is a lot of potential witnesses.

Let's say that he does go to jail, but it takes 5 years. What would you conclusion be at that time?

People with money don't go to jail so long as they one of a few things are true

1) They still have money (he doesn't seem to have so much anymore)

2) They already traded money for power so people feel they owe him favors (no indication of this)

3) He didn't screw over other rich people (seems he did screw over other rich people)

The third one in particular is important. Messing with other rich people's money is far and away the easiest way to get yourself thrown in jail despite any wealth you might have.

Yep. "Don't screw over important investors" seems to be the key rule that Madoff, Holmes and now SBF have broken.

He is 100% going to jail.