Oh my goodness no! I'm not sure what SBF thinks he is doing, but he is definitely maximizing his chances of going to jail.
He is making his future defense lawyer's job very difficult by committing to a story. The lawyer will be severely constrained from suggesting alternate explanations of the facts to the jury because SBF has already negated so many possible interpretations. Every time SBF overstates an explanation, the prosecutors get that into the record. Every time SBF provably misstates or misleads in an interview, the prosecutors get to say "take a look at this slime ball."
When under investigation, you shut up. It's the only smart thing to do.
I think one thing to keep in mind here is that, while everything you said is true for most ordinary defendants, Sam's parents are both highly regarded Stanford law professors. They have both been spotted in the Bahamas with him, and are certainly giving him counsel here, not to mention any whiteshoe legal team he's hired. Sam may be a lot of things, but he's not an idiot. There is no doubt that what he's doing is part of a calculated strategy, and it is a virtual certainty that that strategy has been approved of by legally serious elements of his defense team.
Whether or not it works time will tell, but it's a mistake to think that he's just a fool running his mouth.
Just because he's getting good advice doesn't mean he's taking any of it. Indeed he has said he isn't; is that part of the advice, to pretend he isn't listening to it?
Pride is a powerful drug that can make people think they're immune to all kinds of harsh realities. Clever fools abound. If it's a calculation, it sure looks like he's bad at math.
I'm wondering if he actually assumes he will have to go to jail, and is trying to use this situation to get as much attention as possible, perhaps hoping to become "famous" so people will hire him for.. something.. when he gets out of jail? Seems like there's always someone wiling to work with you if you're famous enough.
I dunno, I'm probably wrong. Most likely he's just not very smart. That fits the evidence considering what we've heard about how he ran the company
He is making his future defense lawyer's job very difficult by committing to a story. The lawyer will be severely constrained from suggesting alternate explanations of the facts to the jury because SBF has already negated so many possible interpretations. Every time SBF overstates an explanation, the prosecutors get that into the record. Every time SBF provably misstates or misleads in an interview, the prosecutors get to say "take a look at this slime ball."
When under investigation, you shut up. It's the only smart thing to do.