Taiwan has other problems that are similar to what Ukraine has faced from Russia. People would be crazy to immigrate there now and in the near future.

People keep telling us this but we feel it's overblown. When you listen to western media they make it seem like an invasion is just around the corner, whereas over here the relationship with the PRC is little changed.

Nobody can know for sure but you can never know if a huge earthquake will hit San Francisco, better not live there. Or if the subway will flood in new York city, better not live there. Or if Berlin will be hit with a terrorist bomb, better not live there...

And so on. At least here we are very unlikely to be shot, and, our public transit means we don't have to risk death from drunk driving. I believe a rational analysis of actual likelihood to random death in Taiwan vs the usa, the outcomes are much better in Taiwan, and that's before considering better access to healthcare and other reasons our quality of life is higher here.

I’ve been watching news in Asia, including from Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, and the Philippines.

It’s not overblown. If I were to guess, people are prone to normalcy bias even when the probability for an invasion is getting higher and higher.

The further China’s social order degrades, the higher the chances of an invasion.

I think I'm going to take the Taiwanese person's opinion on the matter over yours, no offense haha. Frankly being a Japanese native in Japan, I can only confirm his opinion. Endless political posturing does not make a war, except in the case of the classic gung-ho American cowboyism.

I’m Taiwanese as well, but that irrelevant in light of things like news and facts. Japanese media tends to side with my narrative as well.

> I’ve been watching news in Asia, including from Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, and the Philippines.

It should be obvious, but so have I. What are you seeing in your news that makes you think you know more than I that there's not only a higher risk of PLA invasion, but that said risk is at all measurable in any meaningful way?

> The further China’s social order degrades, the higher the chances of an invasion.

By what basis? Try my logic: the further the PRC's social order degrades, the less support Xi will have for a foreign war. What happened back in Russia when they invaded Ukraine? Protests. Does the CPC want more protests right now?

It's moot. Think about it: if you are so certain that there will be an invasion, then you likely would acknowledge that our intelligence services are even more certain. If your certainty is so high, their certainty would be, well, probably at 100% in the next year, right? If they knew that, would they not completely mobilize our army, activate our standing militia? The PLA would know that we know, and wouldn't the invasion simply happen tomorrow?

I say this because I ask you to recognize the inherent uncertainty at all, and that the statistical probability of a PLA invasion is dependent upon human whim and global politics. If you can't tell me which way a stock is going to go confidently enough to bet your entire savings on it, there's no way you can reasonably guess whether Taiwan is livable based on risk of invasion.

I mean, if you're telling me you wouldn't live in Taiwan because you'd be afraid of an invasion, I definitely don't want to hear that you've been in a car any time in the last year, because if you're that concerned about the PLA invading Taiwan, there's no WAY you would risk the objectively, measurably higher likelihood of getting in a car accident from a drunk driver.

But don't take my word for it: in the words of a huge portion of the staff of the US state department stationed here in Taiwan (we had a dinner party recently (I have no authority to quote them on this so you know, don't run to the press)): the US State Department is skittish to a fault. If they haven't pulled staff, they don't consider invasion a realistic probability.

TSMC wouldn’t be making foundries in multiple countries if the danger of a Chinese invasion wasn’t both real and imminent.

There’s also a lot of troop deployments in both Fujian and Hainan.

Focusing your country’s rage outward towards a foreign enemy is also a strategy so old that even the Romans mention it.

I get it. You don’t want to leave like the Cantonese in Hong Kong. You can keep your head in the ground all you want, but it’s not going to make the danger go away

The difference being that Taiwan is a goose that lays golden eggs (TMSC) so you'd be crazy so invade and thereby kill it.

Pretty sure Ukraine had / has nothing that Russia wants to keep alive.

Xi isn’t very bright. Taiwan is also an emotional issue for mainlander China, so the logic will not be fully rational.

If the danger wasn’t real, TSMC wouldn’t be building foundries in the US, Japan, India, and Germany to name a few places.