I agree that we shouldn't buy into the media's perpetual gloom & doom machine but I also caution against the knee-jerk contrarian "everything is fine" impulse.
The percentage rate of change is often the best signal in these kinds of indicators. We're around 20% YoY. The last two years (2004 & 2008) we hit that kind of level weren't strong economies.
The Dec '22 FOMC Minutes also hinted that the FOMC is also watching credit card levels. Interest rates have exploded higher yet consumers are increasing their credit card debt.
I agree that we shouldn't buy into the media's perpetual gloom & doom machine but I also caution against the knee-jerk contrarian "everything is fine" impulse.
The percentage rate of change is often the best signal in these kinds of indicators. We're around 20% YoY. The last two years (2004 & 2008) we hit that kind of level weren't strong economies.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=ZAtQ
The Dec '22 FOMC Minutes also hinted that the FOMC is also watching credit card levels. Interest rates have exploded higher yet consumers are increasing their credit card debt.