even the most resilient trees can't sprout in winter...
blablabla.
but of course the truth is that it's not the entire industry, it's not just the Fed, that fucking disruptive book is bullshit (most disruptors end up losing out as incumbents adopt), and the making the world a better place gang has 100000 spreadsheets and infinite amount of malaria bednets, but all they managed to do so far is that everyone and their dog now only associates them with that fallen crypto kid.
a bit more importantly, these super amazing "returns" and asset bubbles and stock market to the moons and quarterly make it rain bonanzas can only continue as capital amortization doesn't start eating into it hard.
and by capital I mean the culmination of the last however many decades of actual community and infrastructure building, not the nice financial instruments.
yes, low interest rates are here to stay most likely, because of all the extremely wealthy retirement funds of aging populations all over the developed world are buying safe assets, so the US Treasury can sell a lot of bonds.
the question is what are we going to do with this? the signs point to slowed incremental progress and general incompetent cycles of fake it till you make it cooperation (on all levels, from individuals to don't be evil companies to countries) and xenophobic populist outbursts of untreated change anxiety, dotted with hints of hope of more of the better stuff that's out there, like mRNA vaccines and other biotech magic, small modular nuclear reactors powering walkable cities without burning dead plankton, against a backdrop of war, pandemics, crazy AI and apathy.
> yes, low interest rates are here to stay most likely, because of all the extremely wealthy retirement funds of aging populations all over the developed world are buying safe assets, so the US Treasury can sell a lot of bonds.
Isn't it also dependent on inflation? Higher inflation = higher bond yields
It's unsurprisingly a bit more complex than that, but yes. The mechanism is something like
general price level increase accelerates (inflation overshoots the target) -> central banks act to cool the economy (they conduct open market operations to remove liquidity, increase various knobs like interest-paid-on-reserves, basically the opposite of "quantitative easing") -> this has a knock on effect on corporate and governmental bond auctions -> bond interest rates go up
but this is a "closed loop" because the end result is that "inflation creeps back down to/below target level", and then bond yields go back to where they were and it seems that's mostly a function of the appetite for safe assets.
of course this might all be irrelevant if central banks basically switch to "nominal GDP targeting"
blablabla.
but of course the truth is that it's not the entire industry, it's not just the Fed, that fucking disruptive book is bullshit (most disruptors end up losing out as incumbents adopt), and the making the world a better place gang has 100000 spreadsheets and infinite amount of malaria bednets, but all they managed to do so far is that everyone and their dog now only associates them with that fallen crypto kid.
a bit more importantly, these super amazing "returns" and asset bubbles and stock market to the moons and quarterly make it rain bonanzas can only continue as capital amortization doesn't start eating into it hard.
and by capital I mean the culmination of the last however many decades of actual community and infrastructure building, not the nice financial instruments.
yes, low interest rates are here to stay most likely, because of all the extremely wealthy retirement funds of aging populations all over the developed world are buying safe assets, so the US Treasury can sell a lot of bonds.
the question is what are we going to do with this? the signs point to slowed incremental progress and general incompetent cycles of fake it till you make it cooperation (on all levels, from individuals to don't be evil companies to countries) and xenophobic populist outbursts of untreated change anxiety, dotted with hints of hope of more of the better stuff that's out there, like mRNA vaccines and other biotech magic, small modular nuclear reactors powering walkable cities without burning dead plankton, against a backdrop of war, pandemics, crazy AI and apathy.