Serious question. Do you feel then that all of these layoffs are a wink wink nudge nudge 'aye aye captain' gesture to fall in line with the Fed?
Or do you(and they) think a recession is coming, and that in turn will drive rates down?
It's hard to me to imagine it all, with inflation having been so bad the last two years. But I'm not versed enough I feel to propose any kind of argument either way.
You can't sustain high government debt and high interest at the same time. "Federal government current expenditures: interest payments" are now at 0.9 trillion dollars annually. If inflation increases tax revenue fast enough then ok no big deal but that would still mean the interest rate has to be lower than inflation and if inflation has a downward trend then I would expect the interest rate to follow it with a huge lag.
I believe the layoffs were in response to the stock prices and the general market sentiment that the fed caused.
The rates will come down at first because inflation has been beat. Then it will come down more when it becomes clear that the fed screwed up both ways and now has to try to fix the economy.
Then the consumer will stop buying things because prices are going the other way fast. AKA a deflationary bust which can be much worse than anything we have seen in our lifetimes.
Or do you(and they) think a recession is coming, and that in turn will drive rates down?
It's hard to me to imagine it all, with inflation having been so bad the last two years. But I'm not versed enough I feel to propose any kind of argument either way.