> If one were to have $100 million invested in the Speaker of the House's stock-picking abilities at the beginning of 2019, the same investment would compound to $192 million as of today, slightly off the November high, when the portfolio hit its peak of almost $309 million. Pelosi's strategy generated a negative year-to-date return of 36.04%, accompanied by a negative one-year return of 36.61%, both slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY). - Q3 2022
I wanted to take a look at this because given stock trades are public you'd think there'd be an ETF to track trades for the speaker of the house, but in reality it seems like people wildly overstate the profitability of their winning trades and understate their losses because "slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY)" doesn't make the same headlines. In the long term, they appear to be no better off than the average portfolio picker.
The last time I looked into this, the information on trades by members of the congress is delayed. Something like we know in which quarter they traded but not on which exact day, so the ETF doesn't really track their returns
they track "usual whale" trades, large or weird trades, often by well known figures. Congress is an obvious and easy one to track.
However, they're not required to disclose the trades in real-time, so following it closely may not really help and may hurt in the long run, as quick blips pops or runs fizzle out or revert as the market starts to react.
IIRC there is a 3-day or more lag. And that's optional, I think there is a 30 day requirement?
I wanted to take a look at this because given stock trades are public you'd think there'd be an ETF to track trades for the speaker of the house, but in reality it seems like people wildly overstate the profitability of their winning trades and understate their losses because "slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY)" doesn't make the same headlines. In the long term, they appear to be no better off than the average portfolio picker.