You most definitely will. SVB already fire-sold 21Bn in MBS and took a 1.8Bn loss on that. Someone is eating that loss....
Separately, this is going to cause a lot of finance vultures to look at other banks who also have MBS portfolios on their books. The show's only beginning.
Is there any reason the FDIC itself cant just hold onto the bonds until they mature? The federal government doesnt need liquidity the same way a bank does, they wouldn't need to sell them for less than face value.
Edit: this is actually a serious question, if someone knows the actual answer.
I understand that ideally the government wouldn't want to hold onto the bonds, but is there any statutory (or other real) reason why they would _have_ to sell them at less than face value? If you could guarantee 100% of deposits could be returned by just holding onto the bonds until maturity, that seems like a worthwhile trade.
Past losses aside, the press release says that there are about $180B in deposits with the bank holding about $210B in assets. Assuming the FDIC liquidates and restructures the bank, I don’t see why deposits could not be made whole.
If there were fewer assets then deposits, then yes the 250k+ accounts are probably out of luck.
The "assets" are actually held-to-maturity securities (bonds) that are yielding less than the risk free rate. Who would want to buy a bond that yields 2% when you can buy treasures that yield 4%. So while they might have $210B in paper assets but there's no chance they will be unable to unload them without taking a loss, putting the bank upside down.
> Who would want to buy a bond that yields 2% when you can buy treasures that yield 4%.
Whatever bank/organization that wants to have SVB's customers, probably. If an even bigger bank comes in, one which can take on those lukewarm assets for a decade without risk, then they can immediately position themselves as the "new SVB" and get a bunch of VCs and startups as customers. I assume that they could stand to profit some from such an arrangement, but I'm not a banker, so maybe not?
And restructuring tends not be stay “gov owned” - the government assumes ownership to stabilize the market then tries to sell off the business to another business. Often there’s some incentive to assume a massive amount of customers and assets. The gov may even take on the intermediate loss (the FCID is an insurance agency after all).
Yeah, I can see why in general the government wouldn't want to hold on to assets, but bonds are kind of a special class of asset in that they do eventually mature and will naturally just be something they don't need to manage (within a relatively short time period too). If you expect that the sell off could take years to complete, some of those bonds will be halfway to maturity by the time they're sold.
If I'm the FDIC and I have the opportunity to return 100% of the funds to depositors at the cost of just holding on to a bond for a few more years than I otherwise would, that seems like a tradeoff I'd make to stabilize a lot of companies. (I'm of course biased here)
Will those assets still be worth $210B as the days tick by? I'm not a macro financial analyst, but I have to imagine trying to liquidate $210B of bonds, stocks, etc. will cause at least some of that value to fall – that's a big number.
Once the FDIC kicks in they can sell off to a different bank which can absorb them without touching the open market. Alternatively the FDIC can guarantee the bank for the duration necessary to sell assets slowly. They could likely sell the bank as a whole to another bank if assets>liabilities without too much disruption.
If someone well capitalized buys the bank, then they don't need to liquidate. The bonds aren't worthless, they just trade much lower now that interest rates have risen, however if you can wait until they mature you will get your money + interest.
No, this isn't true. SVB has some unknown amount of cash and other assets on hand. We have no idea what that is right now, or what percentage this is of the shortfall.
Someone will buy SVB, and they will put capital in as part of the purchase.
Well, and until everything is sorted all your deposits above 250k are illiquid now. So, I guess one way to not go under is to find a bank that gives you a generous credit line against whatever deposits there are at SVB. At huge risk margin, and quite a discount on the deposits. If there are such banks willing to do so, that is.
No one knows for sure. We don't know what the value of their HTM MBS actually is on the open market.
What we do know for sure though, is that this process will take months, maybe years, to play out and many startups will run out of money long before this is resolved.
You may not lose money. The money isn’t gone yet. The restructuring may save the money. There’s a playbook for this sort of thing.