In this post I've read A LOT of incorrect population decline estimates. Here is a paper from The Lancet - not retracted, that I know of - that charts the populations of the present day through 2100 for almost all countries in the world:
"Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study"
Click on the large 'View PDF' button to read the paper; there is no paywall.
The wildly incorrect statement that China's population will halve by 2035 is very much off base:
> The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]), China (732 million [456–1499]), the USA (336 million [248–456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151–427]).
China will become the largest economy starting around 2035 but the US is once again forecasted to become the largest economy starting around 2098, according to that study.
With the semiconductor on-goings (both by the United States as well as a the EU) over the last six or so months I think this changes the calculus on this, though.
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I am wholly against child labor in all its forms and posters who are arguing that bagging groceries part-time after school as a middle-class kid is somehow equivalent to working in a meatpacking plant (a slaughterhouse) or on a construction site are either woefully naive or are arguing in bad faith.
"Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study"
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014067362...
Click on the large 'View PDF' button to read the paper; there is no paywall.
The wildly incorrect statement that China's population will halve by 2035 is very much off base:
> The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]), China (732 million [456–1499]), the USA (336 million [248–456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151–427]).
China will become the largest economy starting around 2035 but the US is once again forecasted to become the largest economy starting around 2098, according to that study.
With the semiconductor on-goings (both by the United States as well as a the EU) over the last six or so months I think this changes the calculus on this, though.
---
I am wholly against child labor in all its forms and posters who are arguing that bagging groceries part-time after school as a middle-class kid is somehow equivalent to working in a meatpacking plant (a slaughterhouse) or on a construction site are either woefully naive or are arguing in bad faith.