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> Impressive timing on that prediction assuming GPT-4's release on March 14th counts as "superhuman intelligence".

How many legs does a dog have, if you assume a tail is a leg?

Four. Assuming it doesn't make it so.

In the same way, you can assume whatever you want, but GPT-4 is not "superhuman intelligence". It just isn't, for any meaningful definition of those words.



>> In the same way, you can assume whatever you want, but GPT-4 is not "superhuman intelligence". It just isn't, for any meaningful definition of those words.

It's also not 2030 yet, so the prediction has 7 more years to be false in its full form. If it happens in 2040 will people be upset that it was 10 years later than predicted?


1993 + 30 = 2023


He specifically gives the range 2005-2030 in the paper :)


Get outta here with your witchcraft!


Yes, that's what ChatGPT says: Assuming that a tail is a leg does not actually make it a leg. Dogs have four legs, regardless of the length of their tail.


So the fact that it might have outsmarted you means it is not intelligent?

I think humans tend to have a definition of intelligence that is too far fetched in my opinion. They confluate it with things like conscience, meaningfulness etc, which just might be human hallucinations.




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