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Brunel was probably right that the work of the commission would be detrimental to the rate of innovation. But is that the only thing that matters? We would probably get a faster rate of innovation in personal transportation if we allowed any unlicensed vehicles to use the public highways at any speed. But there would be a terrible cost to pay in terms of lives lost or ruined. It doesn't sound like the commission was planning to forbid any and all usage of cast iron, just not in places where public safety was at risk. An innovative engineer could always build a novel cast iron bridge in a test location and produce some dramatic demonstration of its strength and reliability that didn't involve running fully loaded passenger trains over it. The trade-off between the rate of innovation and the casualty rate does not need to be chosen at either of the extremes.


The lives of billonna5 today today are worth less than the trillions who will live in the future. We owe it to them to sacrifice ourselves.

-- Effective Altruism


Given that we are very limited in our ability to predict the future, the thesis does not matter much. Better to discuss specific actions here and now that we can predict the consequences of [with some certainty into some time into the future].




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