Here's my general process for problem solving when operating with incomplete information.
Evaluate the severity of the problem first. This usually falls into a bell-curve with the X axis starting at "not a problem" to "armageddon."
Attempt to gauge the timeliness of the problem. This tends to fall between "already happened" to "years in the future."
Comparing the severity with the timeliness will give you a good idea of the urgency of the situation, which is then compared to current priorities.
Gather the information you can given the urgency constraints that can give you the best understanding of the problem and accept that this information may necessarily be incomplete.
Recognize that many times you don't have to solve a high-urgency problem but can instead pursue a partial course of action that increases the timeliness, which reduces the urgency as well as provides you more time to gather information to reduce the unknowns.
When deciding a course of action with incomplete information you need to commit to that decision strongly, but always be looking for evidence that the decision is incorrect. Until you have such evidence, stay with your decision. If you find such evidence, re-evaluate since you have the ability to make a more informed decision now. This is generally referred to as "strong opinions, weakly held."
One thing I very much try to do when executing a plan that is based on incomplete information is to have an exit strategy. Try to make choices that give you the ability to roll back changes and restore to the previous state if things go wrong. This will give you more confidence in committing to action.
Always remember that discovering a choice you've made is incorrect is valuable because it increases your knowledge and often leads to greater understanding in an environment in which you lack sufficient information. Don't fear learning this way, it's too valuable to avoid.
Evaluate the severity of the problem first. This usually falls into a bell-curve with the X axis starting at "not a problem" to "armageddon." Attempt to gauge the timeliness of the problem. This tends to fall between "already happened" to "years in the future."
Comparing the severity with the timeliness will give you a good idea of the urgency of the situation, which is then compared to current priorities.
Gather the information you can given the urgency constraints that can give you the best understanding of the problem and accept that this information may necessarily be incomplete.
Recognize that many times you don't have to solve a high-urgency problem but can instead pursue a partial course of action that increases the timeliness, which reduces the urgency as well as provides you more time to gather information to reduce the unknowns.
When deciding a course of action with incomplete information you need to commit to that decision strongly, but always be looking for evidence that the decision is incorrect. Until you have such evidence, stay with your decision. If you find such evidence, re-evaluate since you have the ability to make a more informed decision now. This is generally referred to as "strong opinions, weakly held."
One thing I very much try to do when executing a plan that is based on incomplete information is to have an exit strategy. Try to make choices that give you the ability to roll back changes and restore to the previous state if things go wrong. This will give you more confidence in committing to action.
Always remember that discovering a choice you've made is incorrect is valuable because it increases your knowledge and often leads to greater understanding in an environment in which you lack sufficient information. Don't fear learning this way, it's too valuable to avoid.