> You can conjure fantastic (positive or negative) unknowns about anything.
It's not something conjured, though. Unless you believe superhuman AGI which can set its own goals is impossible, or that it's possible but it can't possibly have goals that pose a threat to humanity, then it's reasonable to believe we can invent superhuman AGI which threatens our own existence. Technologically, I think it's possible to do so.
So if we agree that this is possible, can we also agree that humanity is rushing to reach that point as rapidly as possible? I think we are. Even though we're mostly focused on LLMs right now, and even if LLMs are not a path to AGI (which I agree they probably aren't on their own), it's not like there's no research happening on other pathways. Additionally, we can't be sure that current LLM research won't contribute to AGI - maybe the real path is a synthesis of multiple forms of AI.
So there are some very specific unknowns standing between us and possible doom. We're not making up fantasies wholesale.
- Dangerous AI is possible
- We're racing to create it as soon as we can
- We don't know how to tell if we've crossed a threshold into having dangerous AI
That last point is an known unknown which is extraordinarily dangerous. It's like if you're blindfolded and moving your hand toward a running chainsaw. You know that if you move your hand far enough it will be shredded, you know you're moving your hand forward, you just don't how close your hand is to the chainsaw. You should be concerned in that situation.
It is something believed without any evidentiary basis which enables rationally weighing the actual risk or evaluating mitigation strategies so as to weigh their probable benefits against their probable costs and the associated changed in the overall risk profile; I'm not suggesting literal magical incantations when I say “conjured”.
> Unless you believe superhuman AGI which can set its own goals is impossible,
Depends what you mean by “set its own goals”, I could certainly see an argument that the natural intepretation is impossible in a universe fully governed by physical laws, whether the intelligence is artificial or not. But I don’t actually know that this is important, or even that the mucj weaker assumption that it’s goals might not exactly represent human intent (which is definitely possible of AGI itself is) is important, since human intention can itself be an existential risk.
> or that it's possible but it can't possibly have goals that pose a threat to humanity
Its definitely possible for an intelligence, even a human one, to have goals that are a threat, including an existential one, to humanity. That’s an existing x-risk without superhuman artificial intelligence. It may even be mitigated by superhuman artificial intelligence (as might other x-risks like “earth gets smashed by an asteroid”), if it is possible for such to exist without goals that are antithetical to human survival, in which case delaying superhuman AI could increase existential risk.
But, while this is all nice and conceivable, we have no way of balancing the net impact, positive or negative, of any course on AI to existential risk due to friendly or hostile superintelligences.
> So if we agree that this is possible, can we also agree that humanity is rushing to reach that point as rapidly as possible?
No, I can't agree with that, as it would require that every resource that could advance superhuman AI, and specifically dangerous* superhuman AI, was being directed as effectively as possible to that end. I don’t think we are anywhere close to that. Because AI has some mindshare beyond immediate economic utility, we’re probably heading toward AGI, if it is possible and if our current understanding of AI isn’t so wrong as to make our work irrrlevant even in eliminating bad routes, slightly faster than immediately-apparent economic incentives would promote, but nowhere close to as rapidly as possible.
> It is something believed without any evidentiary basis which enables rationally weighing
But that's exactly true of either position you take. Imagine I'm arguing that aliens probably exist and you're arguing they probably don't. There is no such thing as a belief based on evidence in this case; we only have logical reasoning and assumptions and beliefs.
> Depends what you mean by “set its own goals”, I could certainly see an argument that the natural intepretation is impossible in a universe fully governed by physical laws, whether the intelligence is artificial or not.
This feels like moving the goal posts... all it needs to be able to do is make decisions that are dangerous to humanity. I felt that definition was obvious. All it needs to do do is mimic an oil executive, because, as you say, human intent is also an existential risk. Imagine an oil executive that could get the upper hand in all possible negotiations and desired to make the entire global economy subservient to the needs of oil production.
> delaying superhuman AI could increase existential risk.
Oh, yeah I totally agree that we can't truly know one way or the other. But it kind of feels like deciding to invent and deploy nuclear bombs as a deterrent to war. Did it end war? Absolutely not. Many would argue it didn't even that specific war. We are of course fortunate that nuclear war has not yet destroyed civilization, but a) there's still time, b) we aren't necessarily better off than if we had no nukes, and c) not all risks are equal - AI could be more dangerous.
> as it would require that every resource that could advance superhuman AI
Actually, you're right. I was definitely overstating our progress and didn't think through that argument clearly. But maybe it would be safer if we were devoting all global resources toward a coordinated AGI alignment and development effort...
It's not something conjured, though. Unless you believe superhuman AGI which can set its own goals is impossible, or that it's possible but it can't possibly have goals that pose a threat to humanity, then it's reasonable to believe we can invent superhuman AGI which threatens our own existence. Technologically, I think it's possible to do so.
So if we agree that this is possible, can we also agree that humanity is rushing to reach that point as rapidly as possible? I think we are. Even though we're mostly focused on LLMs right now, and even if LLMs are not a path to AGI (which I agree they probably aren't on their own), it's not like there's no research happening on other pathways. Additionally, we can't be sure that current LLM research won't contribute to AGI - maybe the real path is a synthesis of multiple forms of AI.
So there are some very specific unknowns standing between us and possible doom. We're not making up fantasies wholesale.
- Dangerous AI is possible - We're racing to create it as soon as we can - We don't know how to tell if we've crossed a threshold into having dangerous AI
That last point is an known unknown which is extraordinarily dangerous. It's like if you're blindfolded and moving your hand toward a running chainsaw. You know that if you move your hand far enough it will be shredded, you know you're moving your hand forward, you just don't how close your hand is to the chainsaw. You should be concerned in that situation.