Yes, but it's not just that there's only "a chance" that the collision is avoided - that would be enough if it was actually just a random probability (after all, everything about hashing and collisions - in the best textbook case - is just chance). The problem is that there are methods for obtaining what we call "seed-independent collisions" where by analyzing the hashing algorithm itself you can actually determine a priori values that will collide regardless of the seed.
Oh damn, I didn’t know that. Have bookmarked that post, thank you so much for your comments. I’ve been very fortunate in my writing that the comment sections are always full of people with awesome insight that I missed during my own reading on the topic.
If you have half an hour to spare, I really recommend you take the time to read this: http://emboss.github.io/blog/2012/12/14/breaking-murmur-hash...