> Epistemic status: This is a pretty detailed hypothesis that I think overall doesn’t add up to more than 50% of my probability mass on explaining datapoints like FTX, Leverage Research, the LaSota crew etc., but is still my leading guess for what is going on. I might also be really confused about the whole topic.
Best guess: cause and effect reversed in the analysis. There is a fair chance that to join such institutions in the first place that there is already something wrong with you and such environments will do absolutely nothing to help. On top of that any such group is ripe for abuse by someone who pretends to be a true believer but who is actually out to screw those who really are believers because belief is a pretty good mechanism for suspension of actual - not nominal - rationality.
Best guess: cause and effect reversed in the analysis. There is a fair chance that to join such institutions in the first place that there is already something wrong with you and such environments will do absolutely nothing to help. On top of that any such group is ripe for abuse by someone who pretends to be a true believer but who is actually out to screw those who really are believers because belief is a pretty good mechanism for suspension of actual - not nominal - rationality.