Prices are already coming down. China actually has lots of cheap EVs on the road already. Think <10000$ cars. Are these cars amazing. No. But they are amazingly good value for the money.
What's going to happen in the next 3 years is that several of those Chinese manufacturers are bringing production capacity online in Europe and North America. And they will start selling these vehicles at a premium and make a lot of profit because they don't have much local competition in terms of cost. Tesla is rumored to be working on a cheaper EV but they will likely build it for the international market and manufacture it in their Mexican plant.
Meanwhile, the cost price of batteries keeps on dropping. CATL and other manufacturers are announcing new batteries all the time. For example CATL has had some success with bringing sodium ion batteries to market as well as LFP batteries. Component prices for EVs are dropping as well. It's not impossible to scale EV production. That's actually what's happening. Production volumes are growing year on year and cost per vehicle is trending down.
What's going to happen in the next 3 years is that several of those Chinese manufacturers are bringing production capacity online in Europe and North America. And they will start selling these vehicles at a premium and make a lot of profit because they don't have much local competition in terms of cost. Tesla is rumored to be working on a cheaper EV but they will likely build it for the international market and manufacture it in their Mexican plant.
Meanwhile, the cost price of batteries keeps on dropping. CATL and other manufacturers are announcing new batteries all the time. For example CATL has had some success with bringing sodium ion batteries to market as well as LFP batteries. Component prices for EVs are dropping as well. It's not impossible to scale EV production. That's actually what's happening. Production volumes are growing year on year and cost per vehicle is trending down.