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> But first time use isn't the relevant metric for an activity which one will do for years and in which one engages for productivity.

Having to abandon all the skills you had in muscle memory for years and lern an entirely new set of clues, moves and small, day-to-day tricks surely wont increase your productivity.

This is basically like changing your keyboard layout (which is running unchanged for approx 150 years, btw) every two-three years when the "new version" comes out. Or like remapping all your Emacs/Vi keybindings with every "new version". shudder

It is clear an simple: MS has basically declared the desktop dead (not profitable enough), and Windows 8 is supposed to encourage (i.e. force) current Windows devs to write tablet-compatible apps, which is where MS sees the profits of the future.

It is a bold, incredibly ballsy move, they're putting all their crown jewels (the UI familiarity, the backward compatibility, the Win32 API, the developer community, the stability required by enterprise customers) on the table for the ONE BIG BET.

And it is not even likely that they'll win. The market is already pretty saturated and mature where they want to go. It is not a vacuum, where they can get in and become the only system provider like they were on the IBM PC. Even if they get in, it will be nothing more than the proverbial foot in the door, nothing more. I absolutely cant imagine this going well for them. You only make giant bets like this if you're either absolutely confident that you'll win because you can accuretely predict the future, or if you're absolutely insane.



>"Having to abandon all the skills you had in muscle memory for years and lern an entirely new set of clues, moves and small, day-to-day tricks surely wont increase your productivity."

In the short term perhaps.

Over the long term, I have found that switching OS's [or browsers] makes me more productive because I don't continue using all the beginner inefficiencies I was in the habit of using.

An example from switching browsers is learning to use the middle button to open a link in a new tab I picked up when switching to Opera a few years ago rather than using the right click context menu as I had been doing for years.

It took me the better part of a decade to move the task bar from the bottom of the screen to the left side. The value of starting again as "an experienced beginner" should not be dissmissed.


> You only make giant bets like this if you're either absolutely confident that you'll win because you can accuretely predict the future, or if you're absolutely insane.

Ballmer




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