I see no Post-PC world, only an admission that Dell's profit margins will never return to 1990's levels.)
The "Post PC" world doesn't remotely mean PCs will disappear. We've been in the "Post Mainframe" world for 30+ years, yet Big Blue still makes a lot of money on super computers.
When people talk about "Post PC", they are referring to where the majority of dollars will be spent and how the average person will interact with computers. We are still learning how to make that interaction really effective for producing content, so we haven't completely left the PC world, but within a couple years, we will be there.
One other thing that will be a hallmark of this transition will be ubiquity of computing. In the PC world, there were one or two general-purpose computers in a home. In the Post PC, there will be dozens. And even more special-purpose devices.
Up to today, Post PC products have been mostly used for consumption. This is a side effect of two things: most computers are used for consumption and, as I mentioned earlier, the interactions for creation are still a work in progress. But progress is happening. I've used my iPad to author business presentations from scratch, to do mockups for my web product and to author blog posts.
There are a lot of advantage to having a device that works more naturally with my creative energies. If I'm relaxing on the couch, I can continue to do so. The laptop forces me into a different mindset.
But, yes, PCs will certainly continue to be around and useful for a good number of people.
As I recall, average have jobs. Jobs are becoming PC oriented all the time. That is because the PC architecture (screen, local storage, keyboard) is pretty much needed for full-time production on a PC (and when has been computerized that means that less, not more, physical activity will be needed).
Post-PC products may indeed continue making inroad in consumption and those jobs where people need to walk-around. But outside that, the form factor that is the tablet's advantage become its disadvantage and only obsessive cool-aid swallows will take it beyond these areas.
The only thing that changed the crazy sales of PCs to something a bit more normal is that a four year old PC is now still fast enough to do most of the stuff that you could do with one you bought today.
And it will remain that way until applications will be able to make more effective use of multiple cores.
When I'm in the office (75-80% of my year), i'm a heavy user of Windows. I cycle between five core apps (Word, Excel, Visio, PowerPoint, Outlook+Lookout, VMware/VirtualBox) working on RFPs, Technical Architectures, Transition Documents, Reference Designs, etc...
My "travel system" has changed three times in the last 9 years (Macbook Pro, Macbook Pro, MacBook Air) - but my productivity desktop has remained the same - a Dell Precision 650 running windows XP. I'm _already_ looking forward to my fourth laptop (picking up a 2012 thunderbolt MacBookAir - local backups over a thunderbolt connection to a high-speed NAS will make local backups both more likely to happen as well as more painless) On the flip side- my circa Q1 2004 productivity desktop _still_ does pretty much everything I need of it - I don't have any real incentive to request a new machine, or upgrade off of Windows XP.
I'm picking up a new iPad on Friday, but I don't really see how Windows 8/Metro is going to be a useful replacement for my fairly optimized Windows XP experience. Eventually the Precision 650 is going to break - and I'll probably upgrade to Windows 7 + whatever dell desktop will last me another 10 years, but I agree 100% with the parent - Mobile/Tablets/Laptops still have 2.5-3.5 year lifespan, desktops have moved into the 4-6 year rotation in the enterprise (And, in my case, even longer)
As the world becomes more mobile, and desktops continue to extend their life, we'll see even more transition of leadership (and profit) to those vendors who focus on the "Mobile Experience" - that's what's driving Microsoft to Metro - not because they believe it will enhance our desktop experience (it really, really won't) - but because it's where the market is moving.
The "Post PC" world doesn't remotely mean PCs will disappear.
Agreed. But given what they're doing with their "operating system for the post-PC world", one can't help wondering if that is exactly what Microsoft thinks it means.
They spoke to this quite a bit during the BUILD conference. In short, Microsoft is expecting that the days of computers - all computers - having a screen you can't touch are going to come to an end.
We're going to look at non touch-sensitive screens like relics of an old era.
If you buy that future, you may also come to the conclusion that your flagship OS and cash machine had better be ready for it. And, clearly the last few shots at making a windowed UI touch-enabled didn't go so well.
Personally, the only way I would spend any extra on a touch screen for a desktop is if it was built into a drafting table-like surface, so that it could be used ergonomically. An upright touchscreen causes gorilla arm syndrome, and is worse than useless to me; these touchscreen desktops on the market today from HP and others are just way off the mark as far as usability.
I'm willing to believe, for the sake of argument, that touchscreens will take over. Regardless, those days haven't ended yet, and will be here for years to come.
With that in mind, I submit that it's prudent to wait for the baby to stop moving before you throw it out with the bathwater.
Yes, the same discussion as before leads me to the same question: if this is a world of entertainment embedded devices that support 3rd party apps, why is the term "Post PC"?
Mainframes never achieved the dominance of PC's precisely because they weren't as useful; so it is logical to say that PC's will continue to dominate embedded devices because the iPad isn't as useful.
Embedded devices never even had to compete with PC's on units sold. That didn't make the PC an afterthought then, so what's different now?
Using your definitions, we are just in the computer age, and have been for 70 years (maybe there was the vacuum tube age and the transistor age). That is an engineering definition and doesn't apply.
These padigm shifts aren't about what is inside the device. They are about how the devices are used and how that usage impacts people and society.
The glaring, obvious sign that the world is changing is a grocery store checkout line. Five years ago, a couple people in the store might be looking at BlackBerries. Now, everybody and their kids have a device, and often, those devices are talking to each other, via wifi, 3G or Bluetooth.
That is the people impact in the Post PC world. And that impact will be as large as the impact PCs had on the world (IMO). I just hope it's a positive impact.
I was on my way out of town and stopped at the new supermarket to pick up a sub for dinner. As I was checking out, a young guy and his girlfriend were in line in front of me.
He says to the cashier, "you know your cell phone coverage sucks."
The cashier says, "yea, only Verizon works."
The reply was, "I bet they're sorry the didn't think of that when they were building it."
I don't see where you got that. I didn't define anything.
> everybody and their kids have a device, and often, those devices are talking to each other
The inter-device communications are just part of the app, another way of describing the cloud.
The ubiquitous embedded device is as unimportant to the PC as the wristwatch. I still don't think a wrist computer (or an iPad) will be so dominant people say, "remember when we used to use keyboards?"
Everyone may have a "device," but they will still use their laptop every day.
The "Post PC" world doesn't remotely mean PCs will disappear. We've been in the "Post Mainframe" world for 30+ years, yet Big Blue still makes a lot of money on super computers.
When people talk about "Post PC", they are referring to where the majority of dollars will be spent and how the average person will interact with computers. We are still learning how to make that interaction really effective for producing content, so we haven't completely left the PC world, but within a couple years, we will be there.
One other thing that will be a hallmark of this transition will be ubiquity of computing. In the PC world, there were one or two general-purpose computers in a home. In the Post PC, there will be dozens. And even more special-purpose devices.
Up to today, Post PC products have been mostly used for consumption. This is a side effect of two things: most computers are used for consumption and, as I mentioned earlier, the interactions for creation are still a work in progress. But progress is happening. I've used my iPad to author business presentations from scratch, to do mockups for my web product and to author blog posts.
There are a lot of advantage to having a device that works more naturally with my creative energies. If I'm relaxing on the couch, I can continue to do so. The laptop forces me into a different mindset.
But, yes, PCs will certainly continue to be around and useful for a good number of people.