> So now you know the possible gender combinations are BB, BG, GB
To me, this is where the intuitive answer of 50% diverges from the calculated answer.
I think intuitively, many of us break it up into 3 equally likely, unordered groups: 'BB', 'GG' and 'BG'. We are then told to exclude 'GG', which leaves us with two equally likely options: 'BG' or 'BB'.
This reminds me of the most recent episode of numberphile deals with the sleeping beauty paradox, where Tom Crawford shows Brady that the chance of flipping heads with a coin is 1/3 to which Brady protests that Tom has changed what he is measuring.
With the gender question, we just assume the wrong probability space, which isn't the same, but my mind still wandered to numberphile.
I didn’t buy it either. They claimed both methods are valid, but these are valid for different questions. One of the weaker numberphile videos imo, unless there was something after the point I stopped watching at.
To me, this is where the intuitive answer of 50% diverges from the calculated answer.
I think intuitively, many of us break it up into 3 equally likely, unordered groups: 'BB', 'GG' and 'BG'. We are then told to exclude 'GG', which leaves us with two equally likely options: 'BG' or 'BB'.
This reminds me of the most recent episode of numberphile deals with the sleeping beauty paradox, where Tom Crawford shows Brady that the chance of flipping heads with a coin is 1/3 to which Brady protests that Tom has changed what he is measuring.
With the gender question, we just assume the wrong probability space, which isn't the same, but my mind still wandered to numberphile.
https://www.numberphile.com/videos/sleeping-beauty-paradox