I wonder what the second-order consequences will be. That is, people will still want to signal their commitment/ability to provide when proposing, so the drop in the price of diamonds won't necessarily reduce the overall outlay.
Instead, it would shift the expense to another category (platinum or other expensive metals) or simply lead people to buy more carats (4 is the new 2!). In some ways, these moves could help luxury brands like Tiffany, since their well-known price premium would provide the same signaling device for folks who want to spend tens of thousands of dollars when proposing.
> people will still want to signal their commitment/ability to provide when proposing
Anyone over about 25 and actually mature enough to commit probably doesn't care that much about the ring as long as it's not literally a funyun.
How about a nice home, a leisurely lifestyle and solid career, an amiable personality, a great social circle, track record of being dependable with family, etc. You know, the things the ring is supposed to actually represent.
Rings will get bigger/more extravagant and get mixed with other precious gems or metals. What is not going to happen is stores selling cheaper jewelry.
My naïve assumption is that outside of geologists and jewelers, it is impossible for a layman to identify natural, synthetic, or even a different gemstone.
I would agree, but I think that after some period of time, it will become known that the price of diamonds have dropped dramatically. This means that if a man wants to signal that he's spent a chunk of change on a ring, he'll either need to go with a much larger stone than before, or he'll need some sort of external signifier. That could be a certificate that it's a natural diamond, or that the setting is somehow super fancy.
> people will still want to signal their commitment/ability to provide when proposing
Will they? Why?
People getting married these days are far more likely to already live together, maybe own a house together. These sorts of signals to each other seem somewhat pointless. Especially as it's common for both partners to work, making it somewhat anachronistic for one partner to have this expectation on them.
This whole idea of stupidly expensive diamonds signalling commitment is just marketing bullshit, that has been so ingrained that people think it's somehow natural or necessary. If that's falling away piece by piece then that's something to celebrate.
Now the other form of signalling - "I am high status, look at my high-status shiny stuff", yeah that's not going anywhere.
Instead, it would shift the expense to another category (platinum or other expensive metals) or simply lead people to buy more carats (4 is the new 2!). In some ways, these moves could help luxury brands like Tiffany, since their well-known price premium would provide the same signaling device for folks who want to spend tens of thousands of dollars when proposing.