> This is not in line with consequentialist thinking, so there is no logical fallacy.
Ok, but then what's the point of a consequentialist take, if that's so removed from past experiences?
> These are the questions consequentialism wants answered to judge the morality of such a policy.
Correct. The problem/flaw is deep in the roots of consequentialism itself: if you wait only for the outcomes to judge whether something is moral or not, you can only be a spectator, not an actor. You can't act without a principle. If you want to take action, you've got to act after principles, from memory and/or reasoning (or you may act irrationally - but then you may only invoke amorality, which defeats the consequentialist definition as well).
Ok, but then what's the point of a consequentialist take, if that's so removed from past experiences?
> These are the questions consequentialism wants answered to judge the morality of such a policy.
Correct. The problem/flaw is deep in the roots of consequentialism itself: if you wait only for the outcomes to judge whether something is moral or not, you can only be a spectator, not an actor. You can't act without a principle. If you want to take action, you've got to act after principles, from memory and/or reasoning (or you may act irrationally - but then you may only invoke amorality, which defeats the consequentialist definition as well).