The thing is you are going to make mistakes when you are reasoning with uncertainty, you can learn to make better mistakes but you're always going to be taking risks.
> The thing is you are going to make mistakes when you are reasoning with uncertainty, you can learn to make better mistakes but you're always going to be taking risks.
My take has always been that calculated risk is no risk at all, hence my love affair with data. But now I am starting to question the validity of the premises.
> Maybe you should take up Poker as a hobby.
I have actually seriously thought about it. I know little poker, and it is a interesting proxy for life/business decision making process; with possibly some game theory in it too.
Starting a startup is like a hand of poker. That is, there is some chance that you might work on it for six months and decide it is not worth it, some possibility you will drop out at some other point, some possibility that you get acqui-hired, and a very small chance you hit it big.
You shouldn't do it if one of the outcomes is you wind up on the street, but you might very well have it fail, reel a bit, and then get a job for somebody else.
Maybe you should take up Poker as a hobby.