The problem with this analysis is that existing renewable capacity was largely constructed during a time when renewables cost dramatically more than fossil energy and nuclear. We’re now moving into a period where they cost dramatically less, and the capacity to build them is vastly greater. We’ve already passed the tipping point for most types of generation, and the cost decreases don’t seem poised to stop. So it’s sort of like watching the first generation of inexpensive Intel PC CPUs roll out of the fab, while simultaneously pointing out that PCs were too expensive to get much adoption in the past. Technically a valid thing to observe, but also not really useful.

To give you some sense of the enormity of the change, China over the first 9 months of 2023 built 215 TWh of wind and PV (numbers already adjusted for capacity factor), which eclipses the combined 206 TWh of every single nuclear power plant they have under construction today (there are 26 of them.)