I wouldn't expect it to survive the re-entry regime, as there are a lot of tiles missing, but honestly, if it makes it to atmospheric entry on target, it'll be a wild success.
The nominal reentry and water landing is targeting the area off of Hawaii.
I believe it has to do with risk analysis of not re-entering over populated areas. The open ocean around Hawaii doesn't have people, so if it re-enters and breaks apart, there's no risk. Also, I suspect there are good military radar installations on the islands that might be able to provide additional information.
I wouldn't expect it to survive the re-entry regime, as there are a lot of tiles missing, but honestly, if it makes it to atmospheric entry on target, it'll be a wild success.