No you can not just look at murders and declare that over all crime is down because murder is down.
Looking at cities that do not have the same reporting problem that these large cities with a certain political bent you can see that murder does not track with non-violent crime aka property crime and only has a loose correlation to other violent crimes.
it is entirely possible for Theft, robbery, Rape, etc to be increase while murder is decreasing.
Further according to U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics issued in March 2023, between 34% and 58% of violent crimes were reported to police. For property crimes, the percentage reported to police was between 28% and 44%.[1] It may seem add on only 34% of violent crime would be reported, but we have seen many reports in recent years of police treating victims like criminals in the first place so many people will just move on and never involve the police even with violent crime.
Then there is the reported 90,000+ package thefts [2] that occur that NYPD does not put on their comstat figures they release as these are considered minior offenses, but have a real impact on daily life (aka broken windows)
In 2008, I was run over from behind by an MTA bus driver going south on 21st st in Astoria while on my bicycle. Broad daylight, normal conditions, I had totally un-missable neon reflective gear on.
This was a block and a half past a bus stop where the driver had previously been stopped.
As I was stuck, run over, with myself and my bike stuck in the front right wheelwell, the driver opened the door and spent all of his time kicking me until I could pull the bike free, rather than help. Then he closed the door and drove away.
I sat on the sidewalk and calmly collected myself and my busted bike and called the non-emergency line for the 114th Precinct. Here's what the cop answering the phone told me:
"Hey jackass, do you actually think we're going to file a report against a city employee? click"
Looking at cities that do not have the same reporting problem that these large cities with a certain political bent you can see that murder does not track with non-violent crime aka property crime and only has a loose correlation to other violent crimes.
it is entirely possible for Theft, robbery, Rape, etc to be increase while murder is decreasing.
Further according to U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics issued in March 2023, between 34% and 58% of violent crimes were reported to police. For property crimes, the percentage reported to police was between 28% and 44%.[1] It may seem add on only 34% of violent crime would be reported, but we have seen many reports in recent years of police treating victims like criminals in the first place so many people will just move on and never involve the police even with violent crime.
Then there is the reported 90,000+ package thefts [2] that occur that NYPD does not put on their comstat figures they release as these are considered minior offenses, but have a real impact on daily life (aka broken windows)
[1] https://www.westsiderag.com/2023/07/09/column-how-many-uws-c...
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/nyregion/package-theft-ea...