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> How many optimally greedy criminals are there?

I don't know, how big is Wall Street nowadays? /s

More seriously: it's likely that there are indeed a lot of "optimally greedy" criminals - it's just that we don't label them criminals, because they don't get caught. I guess the actual numbers are somewhat dependent on your trust in the ability of law enforcement.

> perhaps the consistency of his behavior made it seem 'normal' to the local bankers?

Perhaps it was just the '80s, when banks didn't really want to ask any questions.

> the relationship between intake and risk is probably not linear.

I agree there. Note that criminals do tend to understand this, typically regarding the results of conviction. It's the reason capital punishment is not really a deterrent: because once you pass the threshold (which is often with a single act), punishment does not grow prportionally, so they might as well do it over and over.



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