Regardless of these changes or the pricing, I expect there will be very very few third party app stores created.
For a simple reason: Most iOS users don't want it and won't use them. If your app isn't available in the main store, the vast majority of users simply won't install it.
The exceptions would be perhaps extremely popular games like FortNite / Epic.
The most interesting what-if question to me: will Facebook go for it and move their apps into a Meta store and then try to push people over? They lost enough money from the App Store privacy policy changes that I’m sure they have thought about it very carefully.
I haven’t checked, but I’m certain that even if you host on a third party store you still have to follow the privacy policy of apps on the device. Having a third-party store just means you can sell apps with different terms than the AppStore.
Yes, I don’t think it’d change the OS rules for things like having to ask to use the microphone or badging when location services are in use, but I was thinking about things like the disclosures about data resale and tracking which cost Meta a fair amount of money.
This again is an interesting angle for the EU context where things like the GDPR are protecting user privacy. Would Meta be aggressive there, or simply bide their time trying to get other governments to mandate the same platform openness for devices but without the GDPR?
For a simple reason: Most iOS users don't want it and won't use them. If your app isn't available in the main store, the vast majority of users simply won't install it.
The exceptions would be perhaps extremely popular games like FortNite / Epic.