Small sats are cheaper and a rapidly growing market. Technical question: what do you suppose a - say - 50t commercial payload would even be? Currently there's two options that I am aware of: space stations (where again launch cost is NOT the primary cost factor) and space telescopes.
Unless you can provide actual data and facts, I am not convinced at all this is going to change. Especially, since COTS hardware already IS used in the commercial spacecraft business. You can simply buy a standard bus and put your own hardware on it. Heck, you can even buy satellite components online: https://www.cubesatshop.com
You post a link about satellite construction at current launch costs. That has nothing to do with what I was talking about, which is what happens when launch costs fall to as little as $10/kg.
I want you to imagine what happens if two countries in conflict have cheap launch. Space assets are important, and it would become worthwhile to protect them. That means mass, the more the better. The market here would be almost unlimited. And that's just one possibility. Consider space manufacturing (like ZBLAN fibers), high power (multimegawatt) comsats, high resolution imaging from high orbit (mirrors tens of meters across). These are just off the cuff ideas; we could keep listing others. None of them have to be terribly convincing to rebut an argument there's obviously nothing to be done.
Small sats are cheaper and a rapidly growing market. Technical question: what do you suppose a - say - 50t commercial payload would even be? Currently there's two options that I am aware of: space stations (where again launch cost is NOT the primary cost factor) and space telescopes.
Unless you can provide actual data and facts, I am not convinced at all this is going to change. Especially, since COTS hardware already IS used in the commercial spacecraft business. You can simply buy a standard bus and put your own hardware on it. Heck, you can even buy satellite components online: https://www.cubesatshop.com